Day: January 22, 2005

  • ‘Peek’ May Not Be Worth It

    After back-to-back bunglings on election day polling and state-calling, the media is taking a new look at their practices.

    It wasn’t fraud, it was human error. That’s one conclusion Americans should extrapolate from a report on flawed exit polling practices during the Nov. 2 presidential election.

    After President Bush’s win, some of his stunned detractors, on Internet sites and fast-circulating e-mails, immediately alleged fraud. The president’s re-election, they incorrectly charged, had to be due to shenanigans, since Election Day exit polls showed challenger John Kerry on his way to victory.

    And how could the exit polls be wrong? Well, they were, apparently because many of the surveyors, particularly younger ones, ended up talking to too many Kerry supporters.

    […]

    It seems they secured interviews with a disproportionate number of younger voters, who tended to vote for Kerry rather than Bush. This apparently helped to skew the polling results. To their credit, major news organizations did not use the exit polling data to make any predictions.

    The exit polls, however, created confusion and skepticism. One “next time” change the research firms recommended is making certain those doing the questioning represent a wider range of ages.

    Here’s a better suggestion: Just rethink the use of Election Day exit polling in general.

    The 2004 presidential election was a cliffhanger. It’s hard to fault Americans for trying to sneak a “peek” at results, and the news media for trying to offer one. We all want to know who’s winning, and we want to know as soon as possible. Unfortunately, elections don’t conform to score keeping like sporting events do.

    At some point, Americans and their news outlets are going to have to ask whether the angst, suspicion and embarrassment at risk are worth it. Now is as good a time as any to address the issue.

    Fresh out of the ’04 campaign, I’ll be the first to say I’m sick of exit polls and, for that matter, the overkill of constant poll numbers in the months leading up to the actual voting.

  • Victims’ Families Criticize ‘Al Qaeda Reader’

    It looks like Osama bin Laden’s personal version of Mein Kampf is going to be made available to the U.S.

    The original thoughts of Osama bin Laden and other al Qaeda leaders will be made available in English next year in a book, “The Al Qaeda Reader,” whose publisher says is intended to educate the American people.

    The book, which has been criticized by some who suffered in al Qaeda attacks, offers a history of the radical Muslim group, with interviews with bin Laden and his associates and a tract on Islamic struggle by his right-hand man Ayman al-Zawahri.

    A spokeswoman for publisher Doubleday said it was important for Americans to understand the mind of their enemy.

    “This gives a direct perspective on their philosophy,” Suzanne Herz said on Thursday.

    But some who lost loved ones in the September 11 hijacked plane attacks objected.

    “I do not want to give the terrorists any platform to forward their agenda,” said Jack Lynch, whose firefighter son Michael was killed at New York’s World Trade Center.

    “I fear this book could ignite the lunatic fringe in this country who are sympathetic to al Qaeda,” he said.

    […]

    The book draws on two texts published in the Middle East in the 1990s — one from International Jihad Press, which has no known address, the other printed by a small imprint in Jordan.

    The first text is “The Battles of the Lion’s Den of the Arab Partisans in Afghanistan” — a compilation of interviews with bin Laden and his associates giving an oral history of al Qaeda.

    The second source is “Bitter Harvest,” a treatise on jihad penned by al-Zawahri.

    The publisher stresses that all profits will go to charity. I see the concerns about the possible arousing of sympathizers legitimate; however, I would have to think that the lunatic fringe is already in the terrorists’ camp as much as they can be.

    Besides, there is value in knowing one’s enemy.

  • Text Messaging Lets Iraqis Tip Authorities

    This is an encouraging look at how personal technology is playing an increasing role, as Iraqis are using cell phones to help in the fight against the terrorists.

    The tip came in fast, telegraph-terse, and discreet. Maj. Mohammed Salman Abass Ali al-Zobaidi of the Iraqi National Guard scrolled down to read it: “Black four-door Excalibur. Behind cinema.”

    From cell phone screen to local authorities: Acting on the recent text message tip to the Iraqi National Guard commander, police in a nearby town tracked down a black car behind the theater, and arrested the driver for suspected links to insurgent attacks.

    In the volatile Shiite-Sunni towns south of Baghdad known as the “triangle of death,” Iraqi civilians increasingly are letting their thumbs do the talking, via Arabic text messages sent from the safety of their homes, Iraqi security forces and U.S. Marines say.

    At a time when U.S. and Iraqi security forces are desperate for information on attacks – preferably in advance – mobile phone text messages allow civilians to pass on information from a discreet distance, their identities shielded from security forces and their neighbors.

    Although a cell phone displays the caller’s number, phone records are so chaotic in Iraq that chances are slim anyone could track down a tipster. And text messages can be sent to the most trusted officer, a far safer avenue than calling a police station that might be riddled with informants.

    “Many, many people tell us about the terrorists with this,” al-Zobaidi said, tapping his black cell phone and thumbing down to show more messages.

    “All the time, I hear his phone – beep beep beep beep, beep beep beep beep,” said Sgt. Eddie Risner of Ocala, Fla., part of a Marine contingent working with guardsmen to try to block attacks and put a credible Iraqi security force on the street.

    […]

    In Iskandariyah, Marines of the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit say they’ve halved the daily attack rate – in large part through constant patrols devoted to hunts for bombs, weapons caches and possible insurgents.

    On this day, Marines found three bombs the hard way – by running across them on patrols, and by having at least one blow up as they drove by. There were no injuries.

    The fourth bomb of the day was the biggest: a vehicle packed with 10 to 15 100mm mortar rounds.

    Marines found that the easy way – a teenager tipped off Iraqi police, who called the Marines. The Americans blew up the bomb remotely, creating a blast that stopped pedestrians and sent flocks of startled birds into the air.

    Marines befriended the teenager later at a police station. It’s the tips and the cooperation with local security forces that Marines want to encourage, they said.

    But few Iraqi civilians want to risk being seen as informants.

    That’s where text messaging comes in.

    “That way, they’re not seen leaving their homes,” said Marine Sgt. Justin Walsh, of Cleveland.

    Al-Zobaidi, the Iraqi National Guard local commander, put up fliers when he took the position, succeeding a brother who had been assassinated in the same post.

    The fliers had al-Zobaidi’s cell number, and encouraged residents to get in touch if they knew of impending attacks.

    The message is still getting out. In Iskandariyah on Friday, Marines urged a group of men on a street corner to come forward with information. One looked reluctant, and drew his hand across his throat to show why he wouldn’t be providing his name.

    “Do you have the chief of police’s cell number?” he asked.