Target Centermass

Day: March 4, 2005

  • China: Projecting the Power Projection

    Previously, I’ve blogged about a recent Pentagon report looking at the modernization program undertaken by the Chinese military, writing the following:

    This is important as, on the ground, China has the obvious numerical advantage. Their problem would be in projecting this power. The areas they are focusing upon (missiles, aircraft, subs) are crucial in their ability to threaten Taiwan and blunt our ability to support the Taiwanese defenses.

    Similarly, I’ve examined a proposed piece of Chinese anti-seccession legislation which China could use as a legal foundation for an assault on Tiawan. In that post, I concluded as follows:

    Though they are working to upgrade and enhance their forces, it is doubtful that China currently has the air and naval capabilities to attack and bring about a successful conclusion before the impact of U.S. assistance to Taiwan is felt. A failed assault by China could possibly serve to strengthen Taiwan’s position in international circles while weakening China’s at home.

    Again, just last night I again warned about a possible arm race looming with China as they seek to upgrade their ability to project their power.

    Call it just lucky timing, as today I found an extensive and detailed examination of the matter by McQ over at the QandO blog. McQ has done an excellent job of drawing on several sources to flesh out Chinese strategy, both in the immediate future and for decades.

    McQ starts from essentially the same baseline that I did.

    One of China’s problems, in that regard, has been its inability, militarily to attack Taiwan and then sustain its army. A) it doesn’t have the military transport (in shipping) to land and sustain an army on Taiwan and B) it doesn’t have the navy to protect those sealanes (i.e. the Taiwan straits) even if it did have the transport.

    China has the air transport to accomplish an airborne invasion, but airborne troops are very light fighters and would be overwhelmed fairly quickly. What China needs, obviously, is naval shipping which can land troops and armor for that type of an operation.

    After that, McQ’s research points towards a more dire near-future situation than I had previously estimated.

    I’m not trying to be an alarmist here, and certainly if the Chinese are only getting a few Zubars to check out, it would argue against an imminent invasion of Taiwan. But to me the signs are unmistakable.

    Another obvious part of any plan to invade Taiwan would be their navy, and the most important requirement for their navy is to be of the strength and capablity to hold the Taiwan Straits indefinitely in order for any invasion force to have a chance at success.

    Are the Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) preparing for that? According to reports, they may very well be doing exactly that with a two phase strategic plan.

    […]

    Personally, and this is my opinion, I think Taiwan’s days are numbered if China is successful in implementing the plan outlined here. It will be a few decades from now but it seems apparent that China has plans to take the island whether the US or the world care.

    There’s an eye-opening amount of information in McQ’s work — go give it a read.

  • Army Faces Recruiting Woes Amid Iraq War

    Times are tough for recruiters and the goals are getting tougher to meet. Sure, there’s that Iraq thing, but I also blame that silly “Army of One” campaign.

    The U.S. Army has fallen behind its recruiting goals, officials said on Thursday, amid the violence of an Iraq war that has now claimed more than 1,500 American lives.

    “The war is obviously having an effect,” said Army Recruiting Command spokesman Douglas Smith. “Our recruiters are having to spend more time with hesitation on the part of potential applicants and their families. People are very alert to the fact of the risks that go along with Army service.”

    The active-duty U.S. Army missed its recruiting target for February by 27.5 percent, and had slipped about 6 percent behind its year-to-date goal for fiscal 2005, which ends Sept. 30, the Army Recruiting Command said. That marked the first time since May 2000 the Army missed a monthly recruiting goal.

    “It is a matter of concern,” said chief Pentagon spokesman Lawrence Di Rita, adding the Army had increased enlistment bonuses and boosted by 20 percent its number of recruiters.

    The Army Reserve and Army National Guard, whose part-time soldiers have shouldered a heavy load in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, also are reporting recruiting shortfalls. The Army Reserve missed its goals in January and February and is behind its recruiting targets for the year.

    The Army National Guard, which missed its 2004 recruiting target, did not provide February numbers, but said it had shortfalls for the first four months of the current fiscal year through January.

    Separately, the Marine Corps said on Wednesday it missed its goals for recruits signing up in January and February. The Marines said they met last month’s target for new recruits actually entering boot camps.

    The article goes on to detail the recruiting numbers for the Army and its reserve components.

    The 500,000-strong Army has not missed an annual recruiting goal since 1999, and aims for 80,000 recruits in 2005. It fell 1,936 short of its February goal of 7,050, and through February was 1,823 short of its year-to-date goal of 29,185 recruits.

    The 210,000-strong Army Reserve has set a 2005 goal of 22,175 recruits. Through February, it was 643 behind its target of 6,230 after falling 330 short of its monthly goal of 1,320.

    The 345,000-strong Army National Guard fell about 7,000 short of last year’s recruiting goal of 56,000. It aims for 63,000 recruits this year. Through January, it was 4,014 behind its target of 16,835.

    Hmmmm…

  • Man Allegedly Tried to Sell Spy Names

    Another bad guy caught?

    A federal grand jury has indicted an Indiana man on charges he tried to sell names of U.S. intelligence operatives in Iraq to Saddam Hussein’s government before the U.S. invasion.

    Shaaban Hafiz Ahmad Ali Shaaban, 52, was charged with agreeing to act as a foreign agent for Iraq and with immigration violations, federal prosecutors said Thursday following Shaaban’s arrest.

    Shaaban traveled in late 2002 from Chicago to Baghdad, where he agreed to sell the names of U.S. intelligence agents to Saddam’s government for $3 million, said Susan Brooks, the U.S. attorney for southern Indiana. The Iraqi government paid for the trip, the indictment alleges.

    “The deal was never consummated,” Brooks said.

    Shaaban sought the names from foreign sources, but investigators believe he never obtained them, Brooks said. Investigators believe Shaaban acted alone.

    […]

    Brooks said she could not discuss what sparked the federal investigation of Shaaban, a resident of Greenfield, which is about 20 miles east of Indianapolis.

    The federal indictment unsealed Thursday also alleges Shaaban sought to broadcast pro-Iraqi propaganda in the United States and offered to pay Iraqis who agreed to act as “human shields” to protect infrastructure from coalition forces, Brooks said.

    Authorities believe that Shaaban is originally from Jordan and became a U.S. citizen illegally in 2000 when he used the alias Shaaban Hafed on his naturalization application. If convicted of that charge, he most likely will be deported, Brooks said.

    If Shaaban Hafiz Ahmad Ali Shaaban illegally became an American citizen under the name Shaaban Hafed and he’s found guilty of these acts, then I suggest we hang “Mr. Hafed” for treason and then deport Mr. Shaaban. In a box.