Target Centermass

Category: War on Terror

  • Mystery Surrounds Mass Shia Deaths in Iraq

    We still don’t know what happened over the weekend in the Iraqi village of Madain, near Baghdad, but it now seems a certainty that something quite vicious has passed.

    The bodies of more than 50 people have been discovered dumped in the Tigris river south of Baghdad, Jalal Talabani, Iraq’s president, said yesterday.

    He said the victims were believed to have been Shia hostages executed by Sunni insurgents in the Madaen district last week.

    The announcement seemed likely to deepen the intrigue surrounding the alleged massacre, which was dismissed as rumour earlier this week after Iraqi troops raided Madaen and found nothing to corroborate reports of a mass killing.

    “We will give you details in the coming days,” Mr Talabani told a news conference. “Terrorists committed crimes there. It is not true that there were no hostages. There were, but they were killed and they threw the bodies into the Tigris. More than 50 bodies have been brought out from the Tigris and we have the full names of those who were killed and those criminals who committed these crimes.”

    Officials had claimed that the insurgents had threatened to kill as many as 150 civilian hostages – who had reportedly been held since last Friday – unless the Shia left the area. But after security forces found no hostages, some people suggested the reports were exaggerated.

    Iyad Allawi, the outgoing prime minister, had blamed the kidnappings on a group linked to al-Qaeda and led by Jordanian militant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. The group reportedly issued an internet statement denying the allegations and accused the government of fabricating the case.

    The hostage-taking claims caused debate in parliament about the make-up of Iraq’s security forces, and the alleged incident was cited as an example of the need to purge former members of Saddam Hussein’s regime from the military and police forces.

    I blogged about the confusion of war-time reporting on this weekend’s back-and-forth media maelstrom on whether there were large numbers of Shiite hostages taken in Madain. Hopefully the truth of what events actually transpired will be discovered soon and made public. In either case, the event could and should be used as evidence of the need to strengthen Iraqi security forces by removing internal elements that are more detriment than value. I would prefer a selective weeding out over a mass purge, but it is reasonable to assume there’s a sizable amount of weeds that need pulling.

  • Consider Yourselves Warned: Sham-Marriage Follow-up

    I recently posted an ominous take on the likelihood of domestic terrorism in the U.S. As a point of evidence, I pointed to In the Bullpen‘s story about ten women being arrested in Memphis for their involvement in sham-marriages with immigrants from the radical Islamist-rich Morocco.

    ItB’s Chad Evans has now followed up on his story and, as expected, you’re damn skippy, Virginia, there’s a terrorist link.

    Well, well, well. It looks as if I was right that the Memphis, Tennesee sham-marriages had a connection to terrorism after all. Following the arrest of the sham-marriage ringleader Rafat Jamal Mawlawi, the FBI served a search warrant on Mawlawi’s home and what they found is a bit more disturbing than simply trying to arrange upwards of ten marriages with Memphis women….

    Go read a tale of weapons, ammo, and video tape.

  • General Predicts Taliban’s Demise

    The U.S. commander in Afghanistan has predicted that the Taliban would cease to even resemble a cohesive military threat shortly. Surprisingly, the Taliban agrees.

    The top U.S. military commander in Afghanistan predicted Saturday that the Taliban militia would collapse as a viable fighting force over the next several months as rank-and-file members accept a reconciliation offer from the Afghan government.

    Lt. Gen. David W. Barno warned, however, that remaining Taliban extremists financed and trained by al Qaeda allies may attempt to compensate by staging a high-profile attack in Afghanistan within the next six to nine months.

    “As these terrorists’ capabilities grow more and more limited, the hard-core fanatics will grow more and more desperate to try and do something to change the course of events in Afghanistan,” Barno said at a news conference in Kabul, the capital. “I expect they will be looking … to garner media publicity and to try and score some type of propaganda victory.”

    Yes, matters are progressing, but they are not safe. Things are not secure by a long shot when the enemy knows that there are headlines yet to be grabbed. But now, on to the interesting part of the story.

    Earlier Saturday, a senior Taliban official said in an audio tape released to the Reuters news agency that militia leaders were planning to shift from guerrilla warfare to terrorist-style attacks.

    Maulvi Abdul Kabir, who is considered second in the Taliban hierarchy, said the group was training suicide bombers to target government officials, foreign forces and aid workers in major cities and to infiltrate various security forces.

    “The change of tactics is an easy way for us to have a longer-term war of attrition and would also not cost many lives for us,” Kabir reportedly said on the tape.

    Please allow me to translate for you:

    Dear Reuters,

    That great spring offensive we’ve been threatening? Forget about it.

    We took a headcount recently and decided it was time to think outside the box. Outside the killzone, actually. First, we repeatedly got our asses handed to us on the battlefield by forces that were generally only assisted and supported by the Americans. After that series of failures swept us from our cruel, despotic rule, we bravely switched to guerrilla tactics. Okay, so our record was dismal in that, as well, and we were unable to dent the growing legitimacy of the new government or severely harm the Americans. Oh yeah, we were also getting shredded. That tends to harm morale, we admit.

    Now, we have bravely decided to become the thugs and terrorists the world already knew us to be. In this, we may be able to kill more innocents while bravely saving some of our own asses.

    Sincerely,
    the Taliban

    And just how good is the Taliban at terrorism? Well, of course they’re a threat, but they’ve still got some things to work on before their reign of terror can really take hold.

    Several incidents have also been reported in Kabul in the past several days, including the discovery of a small amount of TNT on a trash truck attempting to enter the U.S. military headquarters compound Thursday.

    Lt. Cindy Moore, a military spokeswoman, said the explosive material, which was stuffed in the well of a headlight and detected by a bomb-sniffing dog, was very degraded and not attached to a detonating device. Moore said she did not know the driver’s nationality or whether that person had been detained.

    Foreign workers in the capital have been on edge since last Sunday, when armed assailants seized a U.S. citizen and forced him into the trunk of a car. According to U.S. Embassy officials in Kabul, the man used a lug wrench to unlock the trunk from the inside and jumped out of the vehicle while it was speeding away. Afghan investigators have arrested three suspects in the incident.

    Oops! It’s good to see that in terrorism, as in so many other matters, the devil is in the details.

    Now, back to that amnesty program.

    Neither Barno nor Afghan officials would disclose how many Taliban members have accepted President Hamid Karzai’s reconciliation offer, which seeks to bring in members hiding in Afghanistan or in other countries. Under the arrangement, Taliban members must recognize the legitimacy of the elected government in exchange for assurances that they will not face arrest by foreign or Afghan forces.

    Human rights groups and some Afghans say they fear the offer will enable many former Taliban members to escape justice for past wrongdoing.

    Members of Karzai’s administration have stressed that the offer does not constitute a permanent amnesty program and does not extend to roughly 100 top Taliban leaders implicated in serious crimes. A commission charged with determining the exact details of the program has progressed slowly, but some Taliban members have already begun negotiating with U.S. military commanders and Afghan officials.

    And here’s the money shot.

    Barno said he believed that large numbers of the Taliban force, which once numbered in the thousands, would eventually accept the offer.

    “More and more Taliban realize they don’t want to be in this fight that goes against the tide of history here in Afghanistan any longer,” he said.

    It’s good to have news of progress for the good guys confirmed by both sides.

  • Iraq Kidnap Reports May Be Exaggerated

    Stories of mass kidnappings in a small, divided Iraqi town flew through the media Saturday. Now, one day later, it looks as if reports of huge numbers of hostages among the residents of Madain were overblown, if not almost entirely fictional.

    Iraqi security forces backed by U.S. troops had the town of Madain surrounded Sunday after reports of Sunni militant kidnappings of as many as 100 Shiite residents, but there were growing indications the incident had been grossly exaggerated, perhaps an outgrowth of a tribal dispute or political maneuvering.

    The town of about 1,000 families, evenly divided between Shiites and Sunnis, sits about 15 miles south of the capital in what the U.S. military has called the “Triangle of Death” because it has become a roiling stronghold of the militant insurgency.

    An AP photographer and television cameraman who were in or near the town Sunday said large numbers of Iraqi forces had sealed it off, supported by U.S. forces farther away outside Madain.

    The cameraman said he toured the town Sunday morning. People were going about their business normally, shops were open and tea houses were full, he said. Residents contacted by telephone also said everything was normal in Madain.

    And American military officials said they were unaware of any U.S. role in what had been described as a tense sectarian standoff in which the Sunni militants were threatening to kill their Shiite captives if all other Shiites did not leave the town.

    […]

    The confusion over Madain illustrated how quickly rumors spread in a country of deep ethnic and sectarian divides, where the threat of violence is all too real. Poor telephone communications, and the difficulty of traveling from one town to the next because of daily attacks on the roads make it difficult even for government officials to establish the facts.

    National Security Minister Qassim Dawoud warned Parliament on Sunday of attempts to draw the country into sectarian war and said three battalions of Iraqi soldiers, police and U.S. forces were sent to Madain. He said the Iraqi military was planning a large-scale assault on the region by week’s end.

    […]

    Iraq’s most influential Shiite Muslim cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, urged government officials to resolve the crisis peacefully, his office said.

    […]

    Also on Sunday, Sheikh Abdul Salam al-Kubaisi, a spokesman for the Association of Muslim Scholars, an organization of Sunni clerics, denied hostages had been taken in Madain. “This news is completely untrue,” he told al-Jazeera television.

    Even al-Quida in Iraq, a group oh so eager to claim part in any or all hardship, has denied involvement and called the reports of mass hostages fabrications.

    Whatever happened in Madain began Thursday when Shiite leaders claimed Sunni militants seriously damaged a town mosque in a bomb attack. The next day, the Shiites said, masked militants drove through town, capturing Shiites residents and threatened to kill them unless all Shiites left.

    Shiite leaders and government officials had earlier estimated 35 to 100 people were taken hostage, but residents disputed the claim, with some saying they had seen no evidence any hostages were taken.

    Security forces began raiding sites Saturday in search of those abducted, Dawoud said.

    The story does illustrate the confusion of war-time reporting, especially when the media seem all too willing to report troublesome rumors as certain news.

  • Dying for Another Tet II

    After the second recent attack on Abu Ghraib, I blogged that the terrorists were trying to use the dramatic attacks to create another Tet.

    The terrorists, despite vows to the contrary, had to watch an Iraqi citizenry give the finger to fear and vote for their own future. The attacks against U.S. troops have repeatedly failed and casualties are declining. It is time for the terrorists to turn back to the Viet Nam playbook – they need another Tet.

    Now, one week and another glorious failure by the terrorists, this one an assault on a Marine encampment near the Syrian border, columnist Austin Bay reaches the same conclusion.

    While bomb attacks on unarmed Iraqi civilians continue (particularly against Shiites), public opinion now matters in Iraq, and the thugs’ public slaughters have killed too many Iraqi innocents. January’s election dramatically lifted public morale and changed the media focus — suddenly, democracy looks possible, and an Arab Muslim democracy is Al Qaeda’s worst nightmare.

    Hence the “Tet gamble.” Bombs haven’t cowed the Iraqi people — but perhaps the American people will lose heart and buckle if Al Qaeda concocts a military surprise.

    U.S. forces, however, are “hard targets” — unlike civilians standing in line to vote, U.S. troops shoot back. Since 9-11, Al Qaeda has never won a military engagement at the platoon level (30 men) or higher. Coalition forward operating bases are heavily fortified.

    But the Tet fantasy is so compelling.

    Go give it a read. Hat tip to In the Bullpen‘s Chad Evans, who adds some solid insight to expand on Bay’s column.

    Al Qaida is not just losing because they are outnumbered, have inferior technology to that of U.S. and Iraqi soldiers, rely on old weaponry funneled in through Iraq’s borders, the fighters have the marksmanship of a virgin hunter, are suffering from heat exhaustion because they have to hide their identity or even because they have had their leaders captured or killed at an alarming rate. Most importantly, Al Qaida and similar terrorist groups are losing in Iraq, Afghanistan and throughout the entire world because the world public rejects their ideology of hatred.

  • UN Approves Nuclear Terrorism Treaty

    You can sleep soundly tonight, safe under the warm, fuzzy blanket of security provided by the United Nations.

    The United Nations has approved a treaty aimed at preventing nuclear terrorism. Passage of the measure ends seven years of negotiations.

    In the end, no vote was necessary. The 191-member General Assembly adopted the “International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism” by consensus.

    There, there, rest your little head. We’re all snug and safe now. The vigilant UN is immediately on the case to deal with a threat.

    The measure is the 13th U.N. anti-terrorism convention, and the first adopted since the September 11, 2001 terror attacks on the United States.

    Well, please realize that “immediately on the case” leaves a lot of room for interpretation.

    The treaty adopted Wednesday obligates governments to prosecute or extradite anyone who possesses or threatens to use radioactive materials with intent to cause death or injury.

    The accord is to be opened for signatures on September 14, during a summit of world leaders in New York. It needs ratification of 22 countries to become international law.

    I expect it to become international law. I expect it to look nice, printed in a good font, adorned by meticulously-drawn signatures on the finest of paper. I also expect its enforcement to show it’s not worth the cost of that paper.

  • Iranian Pleads Guilty in Smuggling Attempt

    If you’re going to get caught trying to smuggle weapons, I guess it’s best to make it worth your while. You know, something like an entire F-14.

    One has to admire the ambition. Now throw away the key.

  • U.S. Indicts Three in Terror Plot

    The U.S. has brought charges against three potential terrorists who are alleged to have been aiming at key American financial targets.

    Federal authorities unsealed an indictment Tuesday against three men in British custody in connection with scouting financial targets in the United States as preparation for a possible terrorist attack.

    Officials have identified the targets as the New York Stock Exchange and Citigroup Center in Manhattan, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Washington, and Prudential headquarters in Newark, New Jersey.

    The three men — all British nationals — were arrested in England in August. At the time, U.S. law enforcement officials raised the terror threat level, citing evidence from “multiple sources” that al Qaeda members were planning another attack on the United States before Election Day.

    It will happen here again, though we stand a better chance now of catching grandiose schemes such as this than previously. The tragedy of 9/11 has objectively been more of a defeat than a victory for the radical Islamist terrorists, both in its enticement to them for greater acts more easily detected and in its spurring our bringing the war to them. That said, as I’ve repeatedly posted before, I believe it will happen here on a smaller, more personal scale.

    We need to steel ourselves to that eventuality. Also, we must remember that, no matter the effort, a huge tragedy could get through the defenses. We have to be right one hundred percent of the time; they only have to slip through once for a wealth of evil glory.

  • Poland Sets Date for Iraq Pullout

    There’s no real news here, other than a fairly certain timetable for the Poles’ withdrawal from their involvement on the ground in Iraq.

    Ending months of uncertainty over the precise timing, Poland announced Tuesday that it would withdraw all its troops from Iraq once the United Nations mandate for the multinational force expires in December.

    Defense Minister Jerzy Szmajdzinski said the cabinet had decided to bring home the 1,700 troops, but he left open the possibility that the mission could be extended if the United Nations mandate were renewed.

    “At the time of the expiry of the Security Council’s mandate, meaning at the end of 2005, the operations of the Polish stabilization mission should be finished,” Szmajdzinski said after the cabinet meeting. He said that Prime Minister Marek Belka’s government would not in the meantime be committing troops to any new missions.

    This has been expected for some time. When a planned withdrawal was first announced, I expressed my gratitude for the Poles’ strong contribution (and have repeatedly called for them to be rewarded as a true ally). Now I thank them for withholding a timetable until significant progress had been made on the ground and in the Iraqi government.

    Today’s article goes on to show why I admire the Polish commitment and efforts — the motives have been as noble as the service.

    Poland’s decision to support the U.S.-led war in Iraq and then provide military assistance annoyed several of its European Union partners. But similar to other former communist countries, Poland said its own experiences of living under dictatorship influenced its decision to back the ousting of the former Iraqi leader, Saddam Hussein, and later provide military assistance and training.

    Additionally, the central and east European countries, some of which joined the NATO military alliance in 1999 and others last April, were much more Atlanticist than some EU countries, particularly France and Germany, which led opposition in Europe to the war in Iraq.

    What’s more, the Poles aren’t washing their hands of the matter, realizing that success in Iraq has long-term implications for Europe and the globe.

    But Poland said it would continue to be involved in helping NATO train Iraqi officers both inside and outside Iraq. A NATO spokesman said Tuesday that more than 1,000 Iraqi officers would be trained by the alliance inside the country during this year and a further 500 officers trained outside in military academies in several countries, including Germany.

    “All NATO countries in one way or other are involved in the training,” said the spokesman.

  • Rummy Warns Iraq Not to Purge Security

    Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld cautioned the new Iraqi government to not go the route of a mass purge of Sunnis and those affiliated with the Ba’ath party from the country’s fledgeling security forces.

    The US defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, delivered a thinly veiled warning to Iraq’s government yesterday not to purge the security forces or abuse its power for patronage.

    On a visit to Baghdad Mr Rumsfeld signalled US disapproval of any attempt to sweep Arab Sunnis and former members of the Ba’ath party from the police and army.

    The Shia and Kurdish blocs that will dominate the new administration want to install their supporters in the security services and oust those who served under Saddam Hussein. But Mr Rumsfeld said, in effect, that such people were among the best qualified to tackle the insurgency.

    “It’s important that the new government be attentive to the competence of the people in the ministries and that they avoid unnecessary turbulence.”

    […]
    Mr Rumsfeld used his visit to lobby the newly appointed Kurdish president, Jalal Talabani, and Shia prime minister, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, over key issues. Having won the election and sealed their political ascendance after decades of oppression many Shia and Kurdish politicians want their rebel militias to take a leading role in the state security forces.

    They mistrust interior and defence ministry officials left over from Saddam’s time and accuse some of them of leaking intelligence to an insurgency drawn largely from the Arab Sunni minority.

    Critics say the “deba’athification” process could become a sectarian witchhunt against Sunnis who have the experience lacking in the hastily recruited security forces.

    With the interior and defence ministries offering vast scope for patronage there is also concern that a purge could be an excuse to dole out jobs and contracts to cronies.

    “We have an opportunity to continue to make progress politically, economically … anything that would delay that or disrupt that as a result of turbulence, or lack of confidence or corruption in government, would be unfortunate,” said Mr Rumsfeld.

    Mr Jaafari responded politely but vaguely: “I am sure we are going to form very good ministries. So I think we can cooperate, all of us, and face these challenges successfully.”

    The leading paragraph, with its talk of a “thinly veiled warning,” comes across more harshly than the rest of the story, but that’s the best chance for a reporter to color the news.

    Rummy’s words seem wise — a mass purge or a move to squeeze out Sunnis would be a horrid move, both in terms of public stability and loss of competence. However, the Iraqi government has, to date, been extremely inclusive in its formation, and there is no reason yet to think that this will not continue. Admittedly, I am certain the security forces still contain many of questionable loyalty that should be investigated, watched and possibly removed. However, that does not conflict with Rummy’s wise cautioning against mass purges along religious or political lines.