Category: Middle East

Oh my!

First, the Sunnis:

Iraq’s Top Sunni Party Withdraws from Jan. Election

Iraq’s top Sunni Muslim party said Monday it was withdrawing from Jan. 30 elections because relentless bloodshed would keep people from voting in the long dominant Sunni north and west.

“The Iraqi Islamic Party is withdrawing from the elections because we do not think the situation will improve in the next few weeks to give conditions for credible elections,” party Secretary-General Tareq al-Hashimi said.

Persistent violence in Sunni Arab cities, most of which are under curfew, has raised fears that voters there will be too intimidated to cast their ballots, skewing the poll in favor of Iraq’s 60-percent Shi’ite Muslim majority.

The Islamic Party’s list of 275 candidates would still appear on ballot papers which were already being printed, a spokesman for Iraq’s Electoral Commission told Reuters.

Farid Ayar said the Commission had received no formal request for withdrawal, but if it does, any votes cast for the Iraqi Islamic Party would be considered “invalid.”

The leading mainstream Sunni religious party, along with at least 16 other Sunni and secular parties, had threatened to boycott the poll unless it was postponed by up to six months to ensure that voters across the country could take part.

But most, including the Islamic Party itself, later fielded lists of candidates for the poll to elect a 275-seat National Assembly that will draft a constitution and appoint a cabinet.

Counter this with Secretary Powell:

Powell Says Next Iraqi Government Should Assure Sunni Representation

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell says the transitional Iraqi government to be set up after next month’s elections will have to “find a way” to assure that Sunni Muslims are fairly represented. U.S. officials are concerned that the insurgency and a poor turnout by Sunnis could largely exclude them from a new national assembly.

Mr. Powell says there is no provision in Iraq’s Transitional Administrative Law for handing Sunnis seats in the new national assembly that they don’t win in the January 30 election.

But he is making clear the Bush administration’s view that Sunnis should have an adequate role in the new government that will be chosen by the assembly.

….

At a news conference here, Mr. Powell said the law provides only for the direct election of legislators, but that the government they choose should reflect the religious and ethnic makeup of the country:

“I think that for the government to be representative, and for the government to be effective, the transitional national assembly would certainly have to take into account the ethnic mix of the country, and find a way to make sure that all segments of the country believe that they are playing a proper role in the government. That’s the way the Iraqi Interim Government was formed and the current ministries operate, and it would seem to me to be sensible for the transitional government to do the same thing,” Mr. Powell says.

Iraq’s Shiites, who make up about 60 per cent of the population and were largely denied power under Saddam Hussein, are energetically campaigning in the elections.

….

Mr. Powell said having the election as scheduled January 30, with maximum participation, is essential. He said the United States is encouraging Sunnis to join in the effort, and to, in his words, “say no to terrorism, no to murder, and yes to democracy.”

He said as part of that effort, the United States is talking to other Arab governments, urging them to encourage Iraqi Sunni leaders to turn out the vote.

And then there’s the sonofabitch bin Laden:

Osama Bid to Hijack Vote

Terror chief Osama Bin Laden has made a blatant bid to destroy Iraq’s elections.

In a chilling audiotape broadcast yesterday, the al-Qaeda leader urged all Iraqi Muslims to boycott the poll on January 30.

Bin Laden also said he was PLEASED with the “gallant work” of evil terror chief Abu Musab al-Zarqawi — the man responsible for beheading 62-year-old British hostage Ken Bigley.

The tape was aired by Arab satellite station Al-Jazeera and the voice seemed to be Bin Laden’s.

He tells Iraqis: “This constitution is infidel and therefore everyone who participates in this election will be considered infidels.

“Beware of henchmen who speak in the name of Islamic parties and urge people to participate in the election.”

Bin Laden goes on to describe al-Zarqawi as the “emir of al-Qaeda in Iraq” and urges Muslims there “to listen to him”.

Jordanian al-Zarqawi and his henchmen are responsible for numerous car bombings and beheadings of foreign hostages.

If Osama’s recent releases are anything to judge by, there are two things he is concerned for — his life and his movement. These concerns are driven by two fears, and those are President Bush and progress towards a return to civilization by the world of Islam. He tried but failed to sway the U.S. to reject Bush, and now he is working to persuade the Iraqi people to reject democracy. Osama knows all too well that a free and prosperous society, even in a Moslem nation, will not willingly turn back the clock the centuries his beliefs require. Instead, such a society could potentially shine like the Lighthouse of Alexandria to the surrounding peoples. This could be more of an end of Osama than his death ever could be.

It is important that the January elections go forward, and every terroristic action stresses this importance. That said, ideally the results of the elections would represent the will of the Iraqi people. With the election scheduled for a little over a month away, possibilities are still being considered to counter those working for the Saddamist past or an Islamist alternative future, including this.

Iraq’s electoral commission is considering setting aside seats in the country’s national assembly for Sunni Arab politicians and other groups if their supporters don’t vote in the country’s Jan. 30 elections for fear of attacks by insurgents, a U.S. official said Sunday.

Authorities are looking to counter the effects of threats by insurgents, who have vowed to attack voters and polling stations, said Marine Maj. Jim West, intelligence operations officer for the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force in Fallujah.

The prospect of attacks and intimidation has led some Iraqis, especially in Sunni areas west of Baghdad, to say they’re too afraid to vote. Particularly at issue is the Sunni-dominated Anbar province, where the insurgents are strong.

“They’re trying to find out several different courses of action to ensure that the Sunni population is not disenfranchised from the government,” West said. “That is to ensure that even if the insurgents are able to stop the election process in one area, that these people will still be represented.”

The New York Times first reported the idea in its Sunday editions, citing an anonymous western diplomat who said the option had been presented to an aide to Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, an influential Shiite cleric who has urged Shiites to take part in the vote.

Shiites comprise about 60 percent of Iraq’s population, with Kurds and Sunni Arabs making up 20 percent each. Some American and Iraqi leaders fear the legitimacy of the election would be jeopardized if Sunnis don’t vote.

West said the electoral commission was particularly worried about the Anbar province, which includes the restive cities of Ramadi and Fallujah. He stressed that it was up to Iraq’s electoral commission and government to decide how to handle the vote, and the idea was one of many the interim Iraqi government was considering.

Fallujah was emptied before a U.S.-led invasion that began Nov. 8 to root out the insurgents who had overrun the city. The government allowed people to start returning to some neighborhoods in the devastated city days ago as part of their bid to get Fallujah resettled for the vote.

West said Iraqi leaders were still working to ensure that all major population centers take part in the vote. He said American and Iraqi officials had talked about the 1st Marine Expeditionary force helping with security by giving local officials intelligence information, setting up cordons and “outer security,” and providing more training to make sure polling places are safe.

The United States does not want to have a visible presence at polling stations for fear that people would see the vote as an American, not Iraqi, process.

“It’s an Iraqi election and the Iraqis need to conduct this election and want to conduct this election on their own,” West said. “We’re willing to help however they would like our help but we are not trying to get more involved by any means more than what they feel like they need.”

West also said people in Fallujah need not register beforehand. Many Iraqis are on population lists compiled for a rationing system worked out under the U.N. oil-for-food program, and he said people could become eligible to vote by showing up on polling day and validating their name on those lists.

I have little, if any, initial objections to such a move. The vote has to go forward to get the government into Iraqi hands and I’m not afraid of little hurdles that allow this. I’ll mull it over a bit while the situation develops, but the Iraqi people need to get their hands on a say in their government and their country’s direction. That is the best hope for their future.

Looking for evidence of foreign involvement in Iraq’s troubles? There’s this pathetic tale.

For weeks, Mohammed Ahmed Abdul-Rahman could only wonder where his son had gone. Then the mystery was solved in a will.

“I am in Iraq, seeking martyrdom. I hope we are all forgiven,” Abdul-Rahman quoted his son’s will as reading, saying in a weekend interview that an unknown caller from Jordan had told him how to find the document three weeks after 20-year-old Hossam Abdul-Rahman vanished in September. He said he doesn’t know whether his son is dead.

While only a few cases of Yemenis going to Iraq to fight have been documented, security officials say they are keeping a close eye on travelers leaving this country at the tip of the Arabian peninsula, where Islamic teaching is strong.

Abdul-Rahman has taken the rare step of going public with his story, and is accusing Islamic extremists of brainwashing his university son.

Although its government supports the U.S.-led war on terror, Yemen has long been a center of Islamic militancy, and has suffered several attacks and bombings in recent years. The security officials say they are trying to determine whether Yemeni individuals or groups were financing trips to Iraq or helping with travel logistics.

A group of Yemeni clerics recently endorsed a call by 26 Saudi religious leaders to support the insurgency in Iraq, saying the attacks on U.S.-led forces are a legitimate form of resistance.

An Islamic activist in the capital said that while he was not aware of any direct attempts by Islamic groups to recruit Yemeni fighters to go to Iraq, he was supportive of such travel.

“I support it, because it is a duty. They are going to fight occupiers of Arab and Muslim land,” said Ali al-Kurdi. “Any Muslim who is hesitant in helping Iraqis is a sinner.”

He said recent reports in the local media have encouraged others to make the trip.

According to figures compiled by The Associated Press, there have been at least 12 cases of Yemeni men who have made their way into Iraq. The security officials said that three people suspected of trying to join the insurgency in Iraq were detained at the airport. Others are reported to have died in Iraq.

Authorities watching for travelers to Iraq are focusing on those leaving for Syria and Jordan, security officials said. Yemenis don’t need visas to travel to either country, which both neighbor Iraq.

Sadly, some could read this and still believe the war against radical Islamic terror should solely be about Osama bin Laden.

In a fast reaction to yesterday’s bombings, Iraqi authorities have rounded up 50 suspects, including some said to be rather unusual.

Iraqi authorities detained 50 suspects in connection with an explosion in the Shia holy city of Najaf that killed at least 54 people and wounded 142, and thousands of mourners attended funerals for the victims on Monday.

Najaf police chief Ghalib al-Jazaari said those arrested included “elements” who had allegedly confessed to having links with the intelligence services of neighbouring Syria and Iran.

This is no proof positive of the oft-denied involvement of Iraq’s neighbors in the country’s struggles. However, the circumstantial evidence mounts, providing more and more support to the obvious conclusion.

The Iranians, along with the Syrians, have been promoting and assisting the instability in Iraq, knowing the danger of a successful democracy next door. Now, it seems that Iran is also working on an insurance plan — pouring people and resources into Iraq to influence the elections they seem unable to stop.

Kicking off his country’s first democratic election campaign Wednesday, Interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi declared his own candidacy, saying the country can handle the challenge.

But as Iraqis register to vote, the United States worries that the real winners could be the ayatollahs in neighboring Iran. U.S. intelligence sources tell NBC News that 1 million Iranians have already poured across the border to register to vote in Iraq. And Iran is spending as much as $100 million to elect its favored slate of candidates in Iraq — and may have thousands of spies in Iraq.

“They’re putting money into Iraq,” says Danielle Pletka, an Iraq expert at the American Enterprise Institute. “They’re promoting candidates. They’re sponsoring terrorist groups that are pressuring people in Iraq. They’re doing everything they can.”

And while Iraq’s defense minister warned Wednesday that both Iran and Syria are cooperating with Iraq’s No. 1 terrorist — Abu Musab al-Zarqawi — the United States has no proof of that.

On Wednesday, President Bush, after a White House meeting with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, told Iran and Syria to stay out.

“We will continue to make it clear to both Syria and Iran — as will other nations in our coalition, including our friend, the Italians, that meddling in the internal affairs of Iraq is not in their interest,” said the president.

But, it is not clear what the United States can do.

The United States says Iran is funding the leading Shiite candidate Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, who is expected to emerge as the country’s most powerful figure. A new Shiite government could oppose controversial military operations, like Fallujah, or even demand a rapid U.S. withdrawal.

“I think we have to accept it might not be an outcome that we particularly desire, but if it’s a free and clear election, then that’s what our policy has been all about,” says Geoffrey Kemp, an Iranian expert at the Nixon Center.

U.S. officials hope that Iraqi voters will resist Iran’s influence and remember that less than 20 years ago, Iran was their enemy in a brutal war.

The rulers in Iran know they are sitting on a powderkeg next to an open flame. A sizable and restless portion of their country’s population stirs with a desire for democracy. The thought of a successful democracy taking root in neighboring Iraq without strong Iranian influence could only mean a growing threat of instability at home.

Okay, wrapping up the flood of quick-hits for the night with this.

The Iraqi president, Ghazi Yawar, yesterday warned that long-term instability in his country could give rise to an “Iraqi Hitler” if citizens continued to feel humiliated and despondent.

Mr. Yawar also criticised the US-led coalition for dismantling Iraq’s security services too soon after the war and accused neighbouring states of doing nothing to stop the insurgency.

Agreed, but it’s nice to see that this guy shares the trait of 20/20 hindsight with John Kerry, the former presidential candidate and occasional senator.

The Iraqi president said bombings and kidnappings had plagued the country since last year’s invasion toppled Saddam Hussein, while the relentless Sunni-led insurgency had crippled reconstruction and development projects.

“This could in the long term create an environment in which an Iraqi Hitler could emerge like the one created by the defeat of Germany and the humiliation of Germans in the First World War,” Mr Yawar said in an interview with the London-based newspaper Asharq al-Awsat.

Perhaps we should round up any corporals who fought in the first Gulf War.

Iraq’s interim leaders have come under fire for failing to reach out to some alienated factions and US-led offensives on rebel-held cities have led to further divisions.

Mr Yawar — a Sunni Muslim who was chosen for the largely symbolic post of president in June — urged Iraq’s neighbours to break their “negative silence” about attacks in Iraq and play a positive role in helping stabilise the country.

“When a fire breaks out in your neighbour’s house you should act quickly to put it out, not only for the sake of your neighbour but also so that you are not forced to put it out in your own home when it spreads there,” he said.

Earlier this month, Iraq and its neighbours made vague promises to improve security co-operation after a meeting in which Iraqi officials voiced frustration that neighbouring states were not doing enough to halt the flow of people, arms and funds linked to guerrilla violence in Iraq.

Agreed, the Syrians and Iranians cast a pall on the whole neighborhood. Not that anybody else has been much help, though. How much motivation does anybody in the region have for a free, democratic Iraq? Not much without a ton more pressure applied.

Mr Yawar has said elections should go ahead on time on 30 January. But he told the BBC yesterday that he expected more violence aimed at derailing the polls. He said the security situation could not be solved unless Iraqi forces became efficient.

Most parties representing Sunnis have called for the elections to be postponed for up to six months, saying a fair poll could not be held amidst the violence, most of which is affecting Sunni areas.

Mr Yawar said some former army and police officers with clean records should be reinstated, adding that Washington had made a mistake when it dissolved the defence and interior ministries.

I’m trying to be sarcastic, but this guy is making a lot of sense.