Day: January 22, 2006

  • Iran Turns up Heat in Nuclear War of Words

    Because the Iranian nuclear ambitions cannot be allowed to just simmer on the back burner for a day or two.

    Iran yesterday warned Israel it would be making a “fatal mistake” if it took military action against Tehran’s nuclear programme.

    The warning came as part of escalating verbal warfare between the two regional rivals, with Shaul Mofaz, Israel’s Iranian-born defence minister, saying Israel would not let Iran acquire nuclear capability.

    “We are giving priority at this stage to diplomatic action, but we cannot tolerate a nuclear option for Iran and we must prepare ourselves,” Mr Mofaz said.

    Iran’s Foreign Ministry yesterday branded Mr Mofaz’s comments “a form of psychological warfare”.

    A spokesman said: “Israel knows how much of a fatal mistake it would be [to attack Iran]. This is just a childish game by Israel.”.

    But speakers at a seminar in Israel yesterday voiced suggestions ranging from a show of military force to bombing Iran’s nuclear installations.

    “Only a show of force by the entire world, including the United States and, afterwards, Israel, will be effective in doing away with Iran’s acquiring nuclear capability,” said Yitzhak Ben-Rafael, an army reserves general who teaches at Tel Aviv University.

    Ephraim Sneh, an MP from the opposition Labour Party, said: “The state of Israel is on a collision course with the Iranian regime.”

    One could just as easily make the argument that it would almost assuredly be a fatal mistake for Israel if there were no action taken against Iran.

    The story also included this mildly interesting tidbit.

    Meanwhile, Muqtada al-Sadr, the radical Iraqi cleric, said yesterday that his Mahdi army would help to defend Iran if it were attacked by a foreign nation.

    “The Mahdi army is beyond the Iraqi army. It was established to defend Islam,” he said.

    This little two-bit thug has been allowed to be a repeated pain in the arse for far too long. There is humor to be found, however, in his delusions of grandeur about his little rabble.

  • U.S. Navy Seizes Pirate Ship Off Somalia

    It’s not just a job, it’s an anti-piracy adventure on the high seas.

    The U.S. Navy boarded an apparent pirate ship in the Indian Ocean and detained 26 men for questioning, the Navy said Sunday. The 16 Indians and 10 Somali men were aboard a traditional dhow that was chased and seized Saturday by the U.S. guided missile destroyer USS Winston S. Churchill, said Lt. Leslie Hull-Ryde of U.S. Naval Forces Central Command in Bahrain.

    The dhow stopped fleeing after the Churchill twice fired warning shots during the chase, which ended 87 kilometers (54 miles) off the coast of Somalia, the Navy said. U.S. sailors boarded the dhow and seized a cache of small arms.

    The dhow’s crew and passengers were being questioned Sunday aboard the Churchill to determine which were pirates and which were legitimate crew members, Hull-Ryde said.

    Sailors aboard the dhow told Navy investigators that pirates hijacked the vessel six days ago near Mogadishu and thereafter used it to stage pirate attacks on merchant ships.

    The Churchill is part of a multinational task force patrolling the western Indian Ocean and Horn of Africa region to thwart terrorist activity and other lawlessness during the U.S.-led war in Iraq.

    The Navy said it captured the dhow in response to a report from the International Maritime Bureau in Kuala Lumpur on Friday that said pirates had fired on the MV Delta Ranger, a Bahamian-flagged bulk carrier that was passing some 320 kilometers (200 miles) off the central eastern coast of Somalia.

    UPDATE: Charlie Munn over at the Officers’ Club looks at this event, and piracy in general, through the lens of our war against radical Islamic terror.

  • 2006 Super Bowl Set

    Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks.

    Let two weeks of punditry and gambling begin.

  • Analysts: Chirac’s Nuclear Warning is Signal to U.S.

    On Thursday, French President Jacques Chirac threateningly signalled a willingness to unleash his nation’s nuclear weaponry against terrorist states, a move some see as a French counter to American power.

    By warning that France could use nuclear weapons against state sponsors of terrorism, President Jacques Chirac is signalling that the United States does not have a monopoly on nuclear deterrence, analysts said.

    French experts also agreed that Chirac’s speech on Thursday did not mark a fundamental policy shift but rather a refinement of current nuclear doctrine. Chirac’s unexpected warning to “rogue” states was intended to show that “one does not leave the monopoly of deterrence to the Americans”, argued Dominique Moisi, of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).

    “It was a Gaullist-inspired speech aimed at giving renewed legitimacy to France’s deterrent arsenal, within the context of Europe,” he said.

    Jean-Pierre Maulny, deputy director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS), also saw the message as an assertion of nuclear independence from the United States, but one aimed at France’s European partners. “Jacques Chirac wants to give credibility to the European Union’s strategic autonomy,” Maulny said – despite the fact that, according to one military expert, most European nations wish to remain under the US nuclear umbrella.

    Whatever Chirac’s motivation, and a contrary position the the U.S. would not be a surprising one for the man, the effectiveness of the statement should be considered.

    France and Britain are the only EU nations to have nuclear arsenals. Asked whether Britain would consider using nuclear arms against state sponsors of terrorism, the British Foreign Office said its policy was not to give advance warning of its intended response to specific threats.

    Meanwhile, Maulny questioned the strategic wisdom of Chirac’s decision to clarify French strategic doctrine in the face of emerging threats.

    “Is this necessary? That’s not certain. Because the doctrine of deterrence is all the more effective when it stays vague. “Under (late presidents) De Gaulle and Mitterrand, the doctrine was simply to say: ‘I have nuclear weapons and I will not hesitate to use them.’”

    In a wide-ranging policy speech, Chirac warned on Thursday that any state that sponsored a terrorist attack – or was considering using weapons of mass destruction – against France, would be laying itself open to a nuclear attack. Although no specific country was mentioned, Chirac was understood to be referring to Iran. The West is currently engaged in an escalating dispute with Tehran over its nuclear programme and is seeking to win guarantees from Iran that it is not developing nuclear arms.

    While I am certainly opposed to publicly stating that any means by which a country may carry out its defense is off the table, it is also rash to essentially brag about a willingness to employ all of those means. Still, for once I cannot be too hard on Chirac; it is better to stumble strongly than wobble weakly.

    Others around the globe have also expressed concern about Chirac’s statement.

    Chirac May Spur Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions, German Lawmaker Says

    French President Jacques Chirac’s threat to use nuclear weapons against states that might resort to using weapons of mass destruction may make it harder to persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear program, a German lawmaker said.

    “I’m concerned that Iran will use these comments as a pretext to underline its own interests and that it will make negotiations more difficult rather than easier,” Eckart von Klaeden, a foreign policy spokesman in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, said in an interview in Berlin.

    Arab News Editorial: Chirac’s Nuclear Threat

    French President Chirac’s announcement on Thursday that France would consider using nuclear weapons against any country that launches a terrorist attack against it is political bombshell. Not even George Bush has gone as far as saying that, even though he might like to. Chirac’s threat is alarming. Clearly, had Al-Qaeda flown hijacked planes into the Eiffel Tower or the Montparnasse Tower rather than the World Trade Towers, Chirac might have nuked Kabul. Again, not even George Bush considered that — or if he did, he wisely kept quiet about it.

    Chirac’s nuclear policy speech draws fire across Europe

    French president Jacques Chirac drew scorching criticism in Europe today for threatening a nuclear response to state-sponsored terrorism.

    […]

    The speech sparked widespread criticism in the European media.

    “Jacques Chirac is an idiot,” chided Belgian daily De Morgen in an editorial. “He lives in a time where France is no longer a world power, but he’s still acting as if prolonging a Napoleonic dynasty.”

    Spain’s El Pais called the speech “radical and dangerous”.

    Iran denounces Chirac’s warning of nuclear response

    Iran on Saturday denounced as “unacceptable” recent comments by French President Jacques Chirac that France could respond with nuclear weapons against any state-sponsored terrorist attack.

    Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi said Chirac’s threats last Thursday reflect the true intentions of nuclear powers, the official Islamic Republic News Agency reported.

    “The French President uncovered the covert intentions of nuclear powers in using this lever (nuclear weapons) to determine political games,” IRNA quoted Asefi as saying.

    Cuban leader expresses concern about Iranian nuclear dispute

    Cuban President Fidel Castro expressed concern Saturday about the nuclear dispute between Iran and countries including the United States and France, urging all countries to refrain from using nuclear weapons.

    The Cuban leader chided France for recent comments by President Jacques Chirac that his country could respond with nuclear weapons against any state-sponsored terrorist attack. Castro also accused the United States of searching for an excuse to attack Iran.

    “It is very worrisome that this alliance of countries is proclaiming the right to use nuclear weapons against ‘terrorist’ states,” Castro said in a live appearance on the daily Cuban TV public-affairs program Mesa Redonda, or Round Table.

    “What’s being spread is fear,” he added.

    Oh no, Monsieur Chirac

    Jacques Chirac has a gift for the theatrical, and he displayed his talent to great effect on Thursday when he signalled that France was prepared to use nuclear weapons against any state that backed a terrorist attack against it. The president was speaking to a highly interested party — the crew of Le Vigilant, one of the submarines that carry most of France’s 350 or so nuclear warheads (De Gaulle’s “force de frappe”), and he was also trying to protect costly nuclear modernisation from possible budget cuts. But he clearly knew that his comments would create a global frisson…

    France is one of the world’s five “officially” recognised nuclear powers and permanent members of the UN security council. As such, it is in the forefront of a potentially dangerous confrontation with Iran over its alleged ambitions to acquire atomic weapons. Tehran’s response is that it is entitled, under the non-proliferation treaty, to acquire nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, which it insists is all it seeks. France is obliged, under the same treaty, to make progress towards disarmament…

    […]

    But there is a simple point here: how can countries such as Iran and North Korea be persuaded not to seek the bomb if the “official” nuclear powers flaunt their double standards and issue threats? As President Chirac quipped memorably of someone else in a different context: he missed an excellent opportunity to shut up.

  • Sabotage Suspected in Georgia Gas Pipeline Explosions

    Suspicious explosions in southern Russia signal some very cold nights ahead in neighboring Georgia and Armenia, and the expected finger-pointing is well under way.

    Russian authorities have launched a criminal investigation into a series of explosions that tore through two gas pipelines and cut off supplies to the former Soviet states of Georgia and Armenia.

    Georgia’s President Mikhail Saakashvili has accused neighbouring Russia of sabotage.

    The explosions in southern Russia severed two gas pipelines and an electricity supply line.

    Gas exports have been cut to Georgia and Armenia as both countries endure an unusually cold winter.

    Georgia has enough gas to last just one more day and Armenia has been forced to dig into its own meagre reserves.

    Russian officials say it could take several days to repair the damage.

    Okay, everybody suspects sabotage. The key issue is who committed the sabotage.

    Investigators believe the explosions were acts of sabotage and have blamed anti-Russian insurgents.

    But Georgia’s President, the western-leaning Mikhail Saakashvili, has accused Russia of being behind the blasts.

    The President believes the incident is linked to a dispute over recent gas price rises.

    It should be interesting to watch the developments in this matter.

  • Quote of the Week, 22 JAN 06

    We cannot count on the instinct for survival to protect us against war.

    —Ronald Reagan