Austin Bay examines a recently released piece of captured intel and shows how it demonstrates growing doubts about success in Iraq, but these are not the kind of doubts that have been repeatedly trumpeted from the mainstream media and Congressman John Murtha (D-IsForDefeat).
Several declassified al-Qaida documents — one discovered after the June 2006 air strike that killed al-Qaida’s Iraqi emir, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi — strongly suggest al-Qaida’s leaders fear they are losing the War on Terror.
On Sept. 18, Iraqi National Security Advisor Muwaffaq al-Rabi released a letter from al-Qaida commander “Atiyah” (a pseudonym) to Zarqawi. West Point’s Counter Terrorism Center (ctc.usma.edu) has the letter archived online.
The letter features al-Qaida’s usual religious panegyrics, but also contains strong evidence of fear, doubt and impending defeat. It seems five years of continual defeat (and that is what the record is) have shaken the 9-11 certitude of al-Qaida’s senior fanatics.
Let’s establish the broader context of Atiyah’s letter.
Accurate insight into an enemy’s assessment of an ongoing war is immensely valuable to political leaders and military commanders. With notable exceptions, such “mid-conflict” insight is also quite rare.
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That’s why the National Security Agency and other present-day spy shops release captured al-Qaida communications with great reluctance.
They should be less reluctant. Here’s why. Information Age media — swamped with ideological and political Sturm und Drang — are a key battlefield in this war.
In America’s open society, people constantly take public counsel of the fears. Sowing doubt about current leadership is a fundamental opposition tactic in every democratic election.
Thus America’s “narrative of doubt” tends to dominate the global media — with a corrosive effect on America’s ability to wage ideological and political war.
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Which is why the rare glimpse, like Atiyah’s letter to Zarqawi, is truly big news.
“The path is long and difficult,” Atiyah writes, “and the enemy isn’t easy, for he is great and numerous, and he can take quite a bit of punishment, as well.” Atiyah’s assessment seems to be a major change in tune and tone. Previous al-Qaida documents touted the Clinton administration’s withdrawal from Somalia as the template for American action.
Atiyah adds that al-Qaida’s leaders “wish that they had a way to talk to you (Zarqawi) … however, they too are occupied with vicious enemies here (presumably in Pakistan). They are also weak, and we ask God that He strengthen them and mend their fractures.”
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Al-Qaida’s leaders also fear they are losing the war for hearts and minds. Atiyah senses a souring of “the hearts of the people toward us.”
Hat tip to Greyhawk at the Mudville Gazette, who earlier provided his thoughts on the captured letter.