In my previous post, I blogged against the push by France to lift the European Union’s current ban on weapons sales to China. I also blogged against France in general and Jacques Chirac in particular, but that was for fun.
Today, my stance finds unexpected support — a Los Angeles Times editorial (courtesy of the Decatur Daily Democrat). I’ll omit the initial and closing paragraphs, which consist of the expected qualifications against the U.S. and the Bush administration.
China’s adoption of an anti-secession law aimed at Taiwan that reserves the right to use military force plays into the hands of the Bush administration and Congress, which adamantly oppose the sale of European weapons to China. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice increased the pressure Monday when she declared in Beijing that if the EU lifted the ban, it “would not send the right signal.”
European weapons sales would stoke the Asian arms race, even if they would be unlikely to radically change the region’s balance of power. If the Europeans sold advanced fighter jets to China, Taiwan would turn to the United States for increased sales, which Congress would almost surely approve. But for China, which nurses memories of being carved up by Western imperial powers in the 19th century, the issue is primarily about pride; it’s livid at still being treated as a pariah nearly 16 years after the brutal suppression of Tiananmen Square demonstrators.
France, the world’s third-biggest weapons seller, has never hesitated to provide African and Middle East dictators with arms, and is chafing to treat China like a normal country that poses no threat to peace. What’s more, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana says the embargo is “unfair” and wants to increase the organization’s clout by wooing Beijing.
China has been counting on these two allies to prevail, but it overlooked the unwieldy, democratic nature of the EU. No matter how powerful France is inside the union, it can’t, like the Chinese Politburo, carry out its will by fiat. For one thing, Germany doesn’t want to risk another quarrel with the United States. And China’s peremptory anti-Taiwan move has emboldened Britain and other countries to point to Beijing’s abysmal human rights record. Without a consensus, the EU cannot terminate the weapons ban.
Also coming out with similarly ominous warnings was a think tank with affiliations with the Japanese Defence Ministry.
The [National Institute for Defence Studies’] report said the future of the military balance between China and Taiwan was becoming unclear as China moves ahead with the modernisation of its military.
It warned that lifting Europe’s embargo on arms exports to China could help Beijing vastly improve its weaponry and military technology.
Russia, a long-time supplier of arms to China, would likely see Europe as its rival and launch an aggressive campaign to sell more arms to Beijing, the report said.
“We believe Russia would try aggressively to sell arms to China if the European Union lifts its embargo on arms exports,” said Tomio Kougami, one of the experts who wrote the report.
An interesting twist there, that a lifting of the EU ban could actually spur greater arms dealings from Russia to China. All the more reason the push back against Chirac’s efforts in this matter.