Do we want the troops to be brought back from Iraq? Of course, everybody does. Some just know that there’s work yet to be done, and reductions aren’t wise now.
The top U.S. combat commander in Iraq says American troop levels likely will remain steady through early next year and that drawdowns likely will not depend on political developments in the nascent Iraqi government.
Army Lt. Gen. John Vines told Pentagon reporters Tuesday that the violent insurgency likely will continue through this autumn’s constitutional referendum.
“We don’t see the insurgency contracting or expanding right now,†Vines said.
Vines also said he would prefer not to have a timeline for troop withdrawals imposed by Congress and that there is a possibility the insurgency will evaporate following successful national elections this December.
Feel free to peruse my thoughts on the cowardice of timelines and “exit strategies.”
About 135,000 U.S. troops now serve in Iraq, with tens of thousands more in supporting roles outside that nation’s borders.
Earlier this year, during the relative calm that followed the January election, senior commanders told Congress they expected to be prepared to recommend troop cuts by this summer. However, following a post-election lull, deadly attacks aimed at both Iraqis and U.S. troops have again become commonplace.
“We’re not at that point yet,†Vines told reporters when asked whether he would recommend U.S. troop cuts soon.
Troop levels are “conditions-based,†Vines said. “Currently we know that insurgents will do everything they can do disrupt ratification of a constitution. To them, that’s a terrifying event.â€
Iraq’s interim government is drafting a new constitution, scheduled to be ratified by national election in October. If that happens, national elections for a permanent government would take place in December.
“At this point, I would not be prepared to recommend a drawdown prior to the election — certainly not in any significant numbers,†Vines said.
I deem this a rational assessment based on pending political events and the shape of things on the ground. Vines does not rule out flexibility in the matter, though.
He held out the possibility that he might not ask for replacements for some units currently deployed.
“We continue to assess that,†he said. “We’re not at the point where we make that decision yet.â€
Is this another Viet Nam? Is history repeating itself? Are we tied to years of expanding deployment numbers and constant calls from the military for yet more troops?
Conversely, Vines said he also does not expect to recommend a troop increase for the autumn referendum and winter elections. This past January, U.S. troop levels in Iraq were temporarily beefed up to nearly 160,000 — the peak for this mission — to help protect polls from insurgent attacks.
“I would not be in a position to recommend any spike†in U.S. troop levels this autumn, Vines said. “I don’t see that. Is it possible? Yes, if we think he conditions have changed. But right now I don’t foresee a spike to support that referendum.â€
Well, how long until we can put the Viet Nam analogies to bed? My guess is a long, long while, as the left in America has absolutely tied itself to its skewed view of the American military, its Hollywood-taught-me-about-Nam mentality. So much of their worldview is built on those slanted foundations. Unfortunately, the same is true for the bulk of the “American” media.