Author: Gunner

With official returns some days away, signs are already positive the the Iraqi people, who turned out in large numbers to the polls Saturday, will likely approve their constitutional referendum.

Local election officials in Diyala province say 70 percent of the 400,000 people who voted there in Saturday’s referendum said “yes” to the draft constitution. Twenty-percent rejected it and 10 percent of the ballots were rejected as being irregular.

Sunni Arabs, who largely reject the constitution because they believe it gives too much power and oil wealth to rival Shi’ites and Kurds, form a majority in Diyala, Salahaddin and Nineveh provinces. But all three provinces have sizable populations of Shi’ites and Kurds, who mostly favor the constitution.

Without Diyala, Sunni Arabs now have a more difficult task reaching the two-thirds “no” vote in three provinces that would be required to nullify the constitution. That has raised concern that Sunni dissatisfaction over the charter could deepen sectarian and ethnic tension in Iraq, and strengthen the Sunni-led insurgency.

Sunni Arabs lost power and have felt marginalized since U.S.-led forces deposed Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein. Many Sunnis boycotted elections in January in protest, which brought Iraq’s long-oppressed Shi’ites and Kurds to power.

Sunnis charge the country’s new powerbrokers drew up the constitution with the intention of ignoring the Sunni people, and looking out only for their own communities. Sunni Arabs say that is a recipe for starting a civil war.

VOA spoke to about a dozen Sunni Arab residents who took part in Saturday’s vote. Most said that they participated because they regretted boycotting January elections, and needed to feel politically relevant again.

The heavy turnout gave hope to some that enough Sunni Arabs voted “no” to defeat the constitution. Others said that they voted with the hope that their involvement in the political process will help undercut support for foreign Sunni extremists, like al-Qaida terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and bring stability to Iraq.

[…]

If the constitution passes, Sunni Arabs have a chance to request changes in the charter after elections in December. The challenge of Sunni leaders now is to calm their followers, and focus on generating a huge turnout of voters in December, which will then allow Sunni Arabs to form a political bloc to be reckoned with.

Once again, the terrorists failed to stop the Iraqis from voting in large numbers and failed to make the streets run with blood. Maybe, just maybe, they’re not the great and popular force that some seem to believe.

Also, with each election, democracy becomes more ingrained in Iraqi society.

On the eve of the balloting on their constitutional referendum, many Iraqis are having to endure the night that the lights went out in Baghdad.

Insurgents sabotaged power lines, knocking out electricity across Baghdad area Friday and plunging the capital into darkness on the eve of a landmark vote on a constitution aimed at defining democracy in a nation once ruled by Saddam Hussein.

For most of the day, Iraqis were hunkered down in their homes, with the streets of the Iraqi capital almost empty hours before a 10 p.m. curfew and the country sealed off from the outside world as borders and airports were closed for Saturday’s referendum.

[…]

Although there has been a lull so far this month in major insurgent attacks in Baghdad, the U.S. military has warned of an upsurge in violence to coincide with the vote.

Mahmoud al-Saaedi, an Electricity Ministry spokesman, said power lines were sabotaged between the northern towns of Kirkuk and Beiji leading to the Baghdad region. He did not specify how insurgents damaged the lines, but militants in the past have used bombs to hit infrastructure.

The lights went out soon after sundown, when Muslims break their daily fast during the holy month of Ramadan, and power was still off more than two hours later.

Baghdad’s skyline was black except for pinpoints of light from private generators. The blackout appeared to have affected much of Baghdad province, an area of 2,250 square miles.

Tens of thousands of Iraqi army troops and policemen, meanwhile, formed security rings around the nation’s estimated 6,000 polling stations and set up checkpoints on highways and inside cities.

Tomorrow could be a very interesting news day, although it will be some time before results are known.

As to the referendum, there are two ways in which it could fail to pass.

Ratification of the constitution requires approval by a majority of voters nationwide.

However, if two-thirds of voters in any three of Iraq’s 18 provinces vote “no,” the constitution will be defeated and Sunni Arab opponents have a chance of swinging the ballot in four volatile provinces – Anbar, Nineveh, Salahuddin and Diyala.

Should the constitution be shot down, it would be a blow to the governmental time tables. It should not be considered devastating to our overall goals, though that is how I fully expect our media to trumpet the story.

There’s no great surprise here, as al Jazeera happily pimps for al Queda and its response to a key intelligence release by the U.S.

A purported al-Qaida web posting has charged the United States with fabricating a letter in which the group’s No 2 allegedly wrote to its leader in Iraq asking for money and laying out the group’s plans for the Middle East.

“We in al-Qaida declare that there is no truth to these claims, and they are baseless, except in the imagination of the politicians of the Black (White) House,” according to the statement on a web site known as a clearing house for al-Qaida material.

The statement was signed by Abu Maysara, who claims to be spokesman for al-Qaida in Iraq. It could not be authenticated.

“We call on Muslims not to pay attention to this cheap propaganda and to remember that the media will always be the infidels’ sole weapon until the end of the battle,” the statement said.

Further evidence of U.S. trickery is that Ayman al-Zawahiri always signs his letters to Abu al-Zarqawi with “Hugs and kisses.”

I put forth my brief analysis of the letter here, but I’d also like to point you towards the Indepundit‘s inciteful look at the revealing communique.

Kudos also to commenter SPC Richardson for pointing me to CentCom’s examination.