Category: Asia Pacific

  • The Commonwealth Preps for Afghan Burden

    They are the scum of the earth. English soldiers are fellows who have enlisted for drink, that is the plain fact; they have all enlisted for drink.

    —Arthur Wellesley, Duke of Wellington

    Well, that may have once been the case, but it looks like they’re headed for a dry and dangerous place.

    After NATO refused to participate in an plan to engage the alliance in counterinsurgency efforts in Afghanistan, Britain is preparing to step up to the plate.

    Questions the Army must ask before going into Afghanistan

    Small Army reconnaissance teams have already deployed to Helmand, Afghanistan’s most dangerous province in the south to study the situation before a major deployment of an estimated 2,000 British troops takes place there in the spring. Another 1,500-2,000 troops will be deployed elsewhere.

    Although the British deployment is fraught with risks, it is deemed necessary to stem a growing Taliban insurgency now spreading to urban areas and to deal with a burgeoning drugs trade that is providing new funds and resources to al-Qa’eda and the Taliban in both Pakistan and Afghanistan. However, before any deployment, it is essential that the British high command demand and receive certain binding assurances from Whitehall and the Afghan government.

    Next spring, more than 1,000 British troops, backed by civilian engineers and other experts and diplomats, will form a provincial reconstruction team (PRT) under Nato command to speed up reconstruction efforts and combat the opium trade from a base in Lashkagarh, capital of Helmand.

    Another 1,000 troops, backed by Apache helicopters, will deploy at a separate base in Helmand as a fighting force under the American-led coalition to combat the Taliban insurgency in the south. Another 500-800 troops will deploy at Kandahar to beef up the main command centre of coalition forces in southern Afghanistan, while roughly the same number will deploy to Kabul as Britain takes over command of the Nato lead peacekeeping force in the capital.

    The British deployment has now become much more serious and critical to stability in Afghanistan, after the US Defence Department announced that it would be withdrawing 4,000 troops from southern Afghanistan next spring. The 20,000-strong US force that does the bulk of the fighting against the Taliban is preparing more withdrawals later in the year and Washington is insisting that Nato take over more responsibility for fighting the Taliban – something few countries are prepared to do.

    The American withdrawal has now forced London to seek a wider coalition with other Commonwealth countries to plug the gap left by the Americans, after European countries refused to join either the British-led PRT or the fighting force in Helmand.

    Britain is the first country since the American deployment after the defeat of the Taliban to be both providing a PRT as well as a fighting force in the same region. Britain will also have the single largest PRT in the country. Almost all of the 22 PRTs scattered around the country are 100-150 strong and their effectiveness has been seriously questioned: each country sets its own rules.

    No PRT is combating the drugs trade or doing large scale reconstruction work. Other caveats set by individual governments have been crippling. The Spanish PRT has not left its compound after six months in the country, while the German PRT allows only German troops to travel in its helicopters.

    An ambitious Britain is trying to kill two birds with stone. Establish a PRT large enough to provide real security for aid agencies and the Afghan government to do long-term reconstruction projects and provide alternative crops to farmers to help eradicate opium, while also providing a fighting force to take on the Taliban and glean better intelligence about al-Qa’eda leadership.

    Heading into the deployment, the Telegraph is properly asking for clear lines in what is expected of British troops. Tranparent rules of conduct and engagement are indeed reasonable ground to cover.

    However British troops must have an unequivocal mandate for what they will do and not do. Downing Street is adamant that the Army help Kabul interdict drug convoys and traffickers, even if British troops do not actually get involved in eradication of the poppy crop on the ground.

    The Army has been resisting, saying even interdiction could create enormous resentment among the Afghan population. A similar battle is being waged in Washington, where the US army has been resisting the State Department’s overtures to carry out interdiction. Helmand is the centre of the opium trade in Afghanistan. Helmand’s drug mafia exports farmers, poppy seed and expertise to warlords in other Afghan provinces.

    It is also vital that Britain establish clear ground rules with President Hamid Karzai’s government. The British PRT is expected to work with the local governor, police chief, administration and militia forces in Helmand, but they are deeply corrupt and also involved in the drugs trade. Karzai has to be forcefully told to get rid of several leading Afghan figures in Helmand who are drugs-tainted.

    A major role for the PRT would be to train local Afghan security forces and help build a local bureaucracy that could sustain reconstruction in the future. It would be an exercise in futility if British troops captured drugs traffickers and then handed them over to Afghan officials who were themselves drug traffickers.

    British troops also have to be clear as to how far they can operate. Helmand is the gateway for Taliban and al-Qa’eda leaders travelling between Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan, and is also the main exit point for the new line of communication with Iraq. Several Taliban commanders have trained with Iraqi insurgents and have brought their new skills home.

    It is expected that the Brits will turn to the Commonwealth to assist where NATO feared to tread, and at least Australia is readying for the mission.

    Aussie troops in line for Afghanistan

    Britain is expected to hold talks with Australia, Canada, New Zealand and other countries early next month about forming a force to replace the reducing United States presence early next year.

    A commitment by Australia would put Australian troops amidst a volatile situation in Afghanistan as it seeks to stabilise the nation in the post-Taliban period.

    “The debate is not whether, but to what extent these troops will get into counter-insurgency and counter-narcotics,” a British military source was quoted to say in The Guardian.

    “We are not talking war fighting.

    “But there is potential for armed conflict in some areas.

    “The reality is that there are warlords, drug traffickers, al-Qaeda, al-Qaeda wannabes and Taliban.

    “It could take longer to crack than Iraq. It could take ten years.”

    Australia was already involved in talks with Britain about committing some troops to southern Afghanistan, pending cabinet approval.

    Are there any doubts that America’s strongest allies in the war against radical Islamist terror and, to be honest, just about any other threat, are the Brits and Aussies? Oh, don’t get me wrong, other countries are extremely deserving of consideration, especially Poland. It’s also long past due that we realize that Russia is facing the same foe, radical and expansionist Islamic scum, that we are currently squaring off against.

    Oh yeah, maybe, just maybe, the need for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has run its course. If France can militarily bow out during the heart of the Cold War and the remaining bulk of its membership is happily willing to duck any serious danger in the one country the U.S. supposedly went into non-unilaterally post-9/11, does the alliance really serve any current purpose other than sustaining a rotating presence in Bosnia? Bosnia — talk about your previously-checked countries on the needing-an-exit-strategy list.

  • Islamic Troubles Link Dump, 8 NOV 05

    Sorry, folks, busy with other things tonight. I did want to leave you with some stories that caught my eye, though.

    Second Saddam trial defence lawyer murdered

    Gunmen killed a second defence lawyer in the trial of Saddam Hussein and his aides on Tuesday and the former Iraqi president’s own counsel demanded the court be moved abroad, out of reach of the U.S.-backed government.

    The sectarian anger dividing Iraq pervades the proceedings but ministers refused to consider a move abroad after a lawyer for another of Saddam’s co-accused was killed three weeks ago and the government spokesman declined fresh comment.

    The defence renewed a threat to boycott the court, which is next due to sit at the end of the month.

    Another defence lawyer was slightly wounded in the attack on their car in Baghdad; three weeks ago a colleague was abducted and shot the day after the start of proceedings in the trial for crimes against humanity on October 19. Both dead men made vocal, televised contributions on what has so far been the only day of hearings.

    In Tuesday’s attack, Adil al-Zubeidi was killed and his colleague Thamer Hamoud al-Khuzaie wounded when their car came under fire in the western Baghdad district of Hay al-Adil, police and defence team sources said. Both were working for Saddam’s brother and his former vice president[.]

    Tell the defense team to shut up and button up, move ’em into the Green Zone and let the wheels of Iraqi justice proceed. Just my two bits.

    UN Extends Mandate of U.S.-Led Forces in Iraq Through 2006

    The United Nations Security Council voted 15 to 0 to authorize U.S.-led forces to remain in Iraq until Dec. 31, 2006, to give Iraqi troops time to prepare for assuming responsibility for the nation’s security.

    The resolution, drafted by the U.S. and co-sponsored by Denmark, Japan, Romania and the U.K., asks the Security Council to review the mandate of the multinational force no later than June 15, 2006, or to terminate it at the request of Iraq’s government. Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari requested the extension in an Oct. 27 letter to the UN.

    The U.S. asked for an early extension of the mandate, which wasn’t due to expire until Dec. 31, to avoid making the authorization an issue in the election of an Iraqi government on Dec. 15, U.K. Ambassador Emyr Jones Parry said.

    Smart move there, timing-wise.

    17 arrests in Australia terror raid

    Two Islamic terror cells were rushing to become the first to stage a major “jihad” terror bombing in Australia, a prosecutor said after armed police arrested 17 suspects in a string of co-ordinated pre-dawn raids in two cities.

    “Thankfully, the police forces of this country might just have prevented a catastrophic act of terrorism … either in Melbourne or in Sydney,” said New South Wales state Police Minister Carl Scully.

    […]

    About 500 armed police arrested nine men in the southern city of Melbourne and eight in Sydney, including one man critically injured in a gun fight with police.

    Police said they expected more arrests in coming days and weeks. Federal police have raided another Sydney home, but there were no immediate reports of arrests.

    As per the norm, there was the usual admonition that the Aussies’ participation in the Iraqi theater is the main driver behind the threats. I find that rather laughable, considering that a) the U.S. supposedly acted unilaterally in Iraq, and b) radical Islamic terror should rightly be considered a global threat — there are no safe havens, and flimsy excuses for expansionist Islamic militancy are merely pathetic aids to the danger our civilization must squarely face.

    Restive France Declares State of Emergency

    The French government declared a state of emergency Tuesday after nearly two weeks of rioting, and the prime minister said the nation faced a “moment of truth.”

    The extraordinary security measures, to begin Wednesday and valid for 12 days, clear the way for curfews to try to halt the country’s worst civil unrest since the student uprisings of 1968.

    Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin, tacitly acknowledging that France has failed to live up to its egalitarian ideals, reached out to the heavily immigrant suburbs where the rioting began. He said France must make a priority of working against the discrimination that feeds the frustration of youths made to feel that they do not belong in France.

    “The effectiveness of our integration model is in question,” the prime minister told parliament. He called the riots “a warning” and “an appeal.”

    The riots are not a warning.

    They are not an appeal.

    They are an unchecked, at least as of yet, uprising against both French and Western society by an isolated and radical immigration block that has no reason to care for those same societies. Those involved are the violent children of an immigrant culture of bloody disdain for Western values, solidified and strengthened by a failed mindset of non-assimilation.

    Iraqi insurgent toll rises as offensive continues

    U.S. and Iraqi forces searched house-to-house for the third day of a major offensive near Iraq’s border with Syria on Monday, with at least 17 insurgents and one Marine killed, the military said.

    Operation Steel Curtain continued its cautious progress through areas in and around Qusayba, a dusty, low-lying town in western Iraq, most of whose 30,000 residents appeared to have already fled.

    U.S. Marines and Iraqi scouts, supported by tanks and air strikes, have met what they describe as sporadic resistance from Sunni Arab insurgents and foreign fighters armed with Kalashnikov assault rifles and improvised bombs.

    […]

    Several U.S. offensives this year in the Euphrates valley, a green belt running from the border toward the capital, have been aimed at stemming the flow of Islamist militants into Iraq.

    My best wishes to the boots on the ground and their families. The spice must flow, but the Islamist militant flow must be halted.

  • U.S., Japan Upgrade Defense Alliance

    The United States has taken a step forward in integrating its Asia-Pacific defenses with key ally Japan.

    US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has declared the US-Japan security pact a “global alliance” following agreement on an unprecedented level of operational co-operation between American and Japanese forces.

    While the headline item for Japan from the weekend agreement is the removal of 7000 US marines from Okinawa, its fundamental thrust is a rapid integration of the military commands and their operational capabilities.

    The document also foreshadows a strengthening of tentative security links between Japan and Australia, the key southern partner in the Americans’ Asia-Pacific alliance network.

    It calls for US and Japanese forces to regularly exercise with third countries and to strengthen co-operation with them “to improve the international security environment”.

    Required exercises with third parties could lead to interesting politics. Obvious number-threes like regional allies Australia and South Korea would certainly be understandable, as would be a naval inclusion of the Brits. Some other matchups may raise more eyebrows and political storms, both regionally, globally and internally to Japan.

    “This relationship which was once only about the defence of Japan and stability of the region has come to a global alliance,” Dr Rice said in Washington yesterday after she and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld signed an interim “force posture realignment” agreement with their Japanese counterparts.

    “This relationship which was once only about the defence of Japan and stability of the region has come to a global alliance,” Dr Rice said in Washington yesterday after she and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld signed an interim “force posture realignment” agreement with their Japanese counterparts.

    “We’re now talking about joint activities in various areas between Japan and the US in order to improve the peace security around the world,” said Japan Defence Agency director-general Yoshinori Ono.

    Mr Ono said the alliance “opened a new era” but was careful to insist Japan’s expanded role would not contravene the country’s pacifist constitution.

    All well and good, until possible global realities add pressure to include nations in future exercises that may have serious ramifications on the Japanese homefront and abroad. Exercises with the U.S., Japan and India would be intriguing for the possible future of the war against radical Islam, but also may really be addressing an issue in direct conflict with Japanese legal constraints. Likewise, the hot potato of exercises with Taiwan would definitely give light to a political powderkeg. Despite that, this Taiwan matchup is a rather likely scenario that must be prepared for and gamed in detail.

    However, matters covered by the new US-Japan agreement, including joint missile defence arrangements, push constitutional boundaries, particularly the official interpretation that the war-renouncing Article 9 forbids Japan from engaging in “collective self-defence” with its allies.

    While the ruling Liberal Democratic Party proposes amending Article 9 in its new constitutional draft, the suddenly urgent pace of US-Japan alliance “transformation” is racing ahead of the constitutional debate.

    It is late 2005. Japan’s constitutional constraints are the results of the nation’s aggressiveness over sixty years past. It is time for a revision — it is time for a great nation and regional and global power to unshackle itself, say it can act responsibly on the global stage, and become the contributor that it should be.

    How confident is the U.S. in Japan’s future? Well, it seems they are willing to become even more technologically intertwined with the nation for a shared cause.

    The Americans will deploy the powerful X-Band anti-missile radar system and share its information with Japan, which will further bind together Japan’s planned ballistic missile defence system and the US Pacific BMD network.

    Common causes. Common potential enemies. This is a good step forward, with a lot of potential for thorns and blessings.

  • Last of Aussies’ Great War Fighters Passes

    Australia, our stalwart ally Down Under, has lost a key piece of its history.

    Eighty-seven years after the end of World War I, only a gossamer thread now links the nation to its baptism of fire and blood, after the death of the last Australian to go to the Great War.

    Evan Allan died late on Monday night at the age of 106, leaving only one living connection with the “war to end all wars” – Jack Ross, 106, who enlisted in the Australian Imperial Force in 1918, but who never saw a shot fired in anger.

    Born in Bega, NSW, in July 1899, (William) Evan Allan enlisted in the Royal Australian Navy as a boy sailor at the outbreak of the Great War, when he was only 14 years old.

    He served 33 years in the navy and was the sole surviving Australian veteran to serve in both world wars.

    A statement from his family said he passed away peacefully.

    The countdown to the passing of those Aussies from the first World War has been a painful but steadily progressing process, as history must be.

    On a day when her predecessor, Danna Vale, attracted widespread condemnation for suggesting that a Gallipoli theme park should be established on Victoria’s Mornington Peninsula, with re-enactments of the Anzac landing, Veterans Affairs Minister De-Anne Kelly said: “With his passing, we have lost an entire generation who left Australia to defend our nation, the British Empire and other nations in the cause of freedom and democracy.”

    In Bendigo, Victoria, Jack Ross’s daughter, Peggy Ashburn, offered condolences to Mr Allan’s family. “I just feel very sad, really,” she said.

    The countdown to the last link with the Great War had been “a bit like the green bottles, standing on the wall”.

    She said her father was a modest, unassuming man who had “answered the call” and enlisted in January 1918, two months before his 19th birthday.

    Transferred to the Light Horse Brigade as a wireless operator, he was decoding German propaganda in Sydney when the war ended, and was demobilised on Christmas Eve, 1918, six weeks after the Armistice.

    One by one, year after year, the Great War generation has slipped away, while holding no less a powerful grip on the national psyche.

    The last battlefield Digger, Peter Casserly, died in Perth in June, aged 107. His death extinguished the nation’s last link with the slaughter on the Western Front. One newspaper marked his passing with the headline “All is quiet on the Western Front”.

    The last Gallipoli Anzac, Alec Campbell, a boy soldier who upped his age to enlist, died in May 2002, aged 103.

    At his state funeral in Hobart, the Prime Minister described Campbell as “Gallipoli’s last sentinel”. He spoke of a reflective silence and the gentle stirring of half-flown flags.

    Obviously, we are talking about people who were youths from a different time, a different standard of patriotism.

    At a time when Australia’s population was less than 5 million, 416,809 enlisted for the war (about half of the eligible men), 331,000 served overseas and 61,720 perished (all causes).

    I, for one, mark the passing of Mr. Allan with the haunting Gallipoli-based tune “The Band Played Waltzing Matilda” by the Pogues.

    And now every April I sit on my porch
    And I watch the parade pass before me
    And I watch my old comrades, how proudly they march
    Reliving old dreams of past glory
    And the old men march slowly, all bent, stiff and sore
    The forgotten heroes from a forgotten war
    And the young people ask, “What are they marching for?”
    And I ask myself the same question
    And the band plays Waltzing Matilda
    And the old men answer to the call
    But year after year their numbers get fewer
    Some day no one will march there at all

    [full lyrics can be found here]

    Contrary to the song, though, I would like to say that neither the heroes nor the war can or should ever be forgotten. History slowly but unfailingly slips by us — please find a veteran, thank and talk to the person. Hear, honor and remember the tales.

  • Mini-skirt Soldiers Dance as N. Korea Ponders Future

    Well, this story certainly has one of the stranger headlines I’ve seen in quite a while. Disclaimer: the accompanying picture is a dramatization.

    Women danced in mini-skirted military uniforms as North Korea marked the 60th anniversary of its communist party on Monday, while speculation mounted over whether its leader would use the occasion to name a successor.

    At an event attended by leader Kim Jong-il and thousands of his military brass and cadres on Sunday, the emphasis was on Pyongyang’s long-standing “songun” military-first policy and its “juche” ideal of self-reliance.

    “We should fully embody the party’s songun politics, an all-powerful treasured sword for victory in revolution under any circumstances and conditions, and direct primary efforts to the strengthening of the Korean People’s Army,” the North’s No. 2, Kim Yong-nam, said in remarks carried on the KCNA news agency.

    The anniversary of the Workers’ Party of Korea is a time when the reclusive country revels in mass games and provides its citizens with a few extra bowls of rice to celebrate.

    Hey, nothing captures the fun-loving nature of a repressive commie dictatorship like martial trollops flaunting their gams and cavorting for the party. And hey, extra rice. Bonus!

    Unfortunately, there is also a serious side to this story.

    But for this anniversary, outside attention has been focused on whether Kim Jong-il will name one of his three sons to a key post in the ruling party, which in effect would amount to naming a successor-in-waiting in the world’s only communist dynasty.

    The Russian news agency Itar-Tass last week quoted a diplomatic source in Pyongyang as saying Kim may use the event to announce a successor. Analysts said the precise timing and which son he would pick were anyone’s guess.

    Alas! The odds are not in favor of the oldest of Kim’s brood.

    The eldest of his known sons, Kim Jong-nam, has apparently fallen into disfavour for trying to sneak into Japan on a false passport to visit Tokyo Disneyland.

    Hmmm … yeah, I could see how that could be considered a strike against him.

  • You Want Links?

    I got links.

    Carnival of Liberty IX

    I’d like to point that the latest installment of the Life, Liberty, Property community‘s Carnival of Liberty. Go read another fine collection of posts from a libertarian slant.

    US air strikes on Syrian border kill ‘known terrorist’

    The United States launched air strikes near the Iraq-Syria border yesterday, destroying three houses and killing a “known terrorist”, according to the US military.

    Iraqi authorities said fighting had broken out in the area between a tribe that supports foreign fighters and another that backs the government.

    The attacks by F-16 jets began in a cluster of towns along the Syrian border, near Qaim, 200 miles north-west of Baghdad. The US said four bombs were used to destroy a house occupied by “terrorists” outside the town of Husaybah. Two further bombs destroyed a second house, said to be occupied by Abu Islam, described as “a known terrorist”.

    Scratch at least one bad guy. However, I find it interesting, in a disturbing kind of way, that we have identified a tribe that supports foreign terrorists and haven’t hit it with an iron fist.

    Sunni leap of faith

    Iraq’s proposed constitution can be faulted for its contradictions and ambiguities. If those were its only problems, however, the outlook for this democracy-founding document would look a lot better than it now does, for constitutions the world over share these characteristics.

    The greatest flaw is not what’s in this draft, but how it was handled: presented to Iraq’s National Assembly on Sunday over the objections of Sunni negotiators. In effect, one of the major groups in the three-legged stool that makes up Iraq is missing.

    A constitution derives legitimacy and power from national consensus. The document hammered out in Baghdad this summer rightly declares it is “the people” who are “the source of authority” for constitutional rule of law. No consensus, no country.

    Leaders of the minority Sunnis, who ruled Iraq under Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship and who make up about 20 percent of Iraq’s population, now vow to wage a campaign of opposition to the constitution, which comes to voters for approval in October. If two-thirds of voters in three Iraqi provinces reject it, then a newly elected parliament would have to write a new document. With enough votes this fall, the Sunnis could indeed put the process back at square one.

    But it’s not too late for a Sunni buy-in. And surprisingly, it’s the contradictory and ambiguous nature of the proposed constitution that could help bring Sunnis on board.

    It’s an interesting look at the proposed Iraqi constitution and what it’s wording may mean to the Sunnis. Although I have not perused the constitution yet, I see that Sunnis as having two choices: mildly support the document and become more of a player on the scene or oppose it outright. Should they oppose it and it is still ratified, the Sunnis run the risk of perpetuating their errors of turning out in low numbers in January’s elections.

    Arroyo likely to escape ousting

    Lawmakers in the Philippines are due to resume their deliberations about which of three impeachment complaints to take up against President Gloria Arroyo.

    They are expected to choose the weakest option, and are then highly likely to vote it down, effectively thwarting any attempt to oust her from office.

    Mrs Arroyo faces accusations of corruption and electoral fraud.

    She denies any wrongdoing but admits to a “lapse in judgement” in phoning an election officer during the 2004 poll.

    This is truly looking like a shame. The Philippines are passing by an opportunity to remove a center of corruption. I will never forgive this woman, the Manila folder whose willingness to retreat from Iraq for one life while throwing money at the terrorists has quite probably cost lives, both innocent Iraqis and brave Americans.

    Bush enters immigration debate

    President Bush flew into the heart of the nation’s volatile debate over illegal immigration Monday and defended his administration’s efforts to control the nearby border with Mexico after a surge of criticism from across the political spectrum.

    Two weeks after the Democratic governors of Arizona and New Mexico declared states of emergency along the border, Bush used a Medicare speech here to promise local residents an increasingly robust federal campaign that will deploy more agents and provide more detention space to stop those trying to sneak into the country.

    “We have an obligation to enforce the borders,” Bush said to applause. “I understand it’s putting a strain on your resources. What I’m telling you is there’s a lot of people working hard to get the job done, but there is more we can do.”

    Of course there’s more we can do. After this, I want a lot more done. Maybe it’s finally time we start considering our borders as one of the front lines in the war against radical Islamist terror.

  • More on the Sino-Russian Wargames

    On the eve of this week’s massive joint military exercise by Asian rivals Russia and China, I blogged the following:

    Terrorism is not the target of strategic bombers, not yet anyway. Nor is it the target of submarines and amphibious landings. The same goes for extremism. That leaves separatism, read Tiawan.

    […]

    The Chinese ambitions on Taiwan are obvious and its build-up is transparent. The values of this exercise toward their ambitions are clear: bombers hoping to threaten the American assets, subs meant to hold off the U.S. Navy, and amphibious and airborne troops training to seize Taiwan.

    What dogs do the Russians have in this hunt? Simply a paying customer.

    Now, as the games progress, it seems that analysts and sources have reached the same conclusions about the true agendas behind the exercise.

    All this, codenamed Peace Mission 2005, is supposed to be an anti-terrorist exercise.

    China’s first proposed location, the coast of Fujian province facing Taiwan, would have made its main interest a little clearer. The Russians, anxious not to be dragged into a war over the island republic, wanted the war games on the border of landlocked Xinjiang, in China’s north-west.

    Shandong, the compromise, is closer to China’s objective. A Russian military source, quoted by the Japanese news agency Kyodo, said: “This scenario envisages blitzing into Taiwan’s nerve centres while enforcing naval blockades for containing the US military’s intervention.”

    Wu Min-chieh, a writer for Hong Kong’s Communist Party-linked newspaper Wen Wei Po, said the exercises had multiple objectives — showing off the level of military co-operation between China and Russia; demonstrating the ability to intervene in Korea, just across the Yellow Sea; and deterring independence forces in Taiwan.

    Other analysts see it as continuing pressure by the two powers to force the US out of its military presence in central Asia as part of the Afghanistan invention since 2001, especially following Uzbekistan’s recent order for the US to quit an air base.

    […]

    The exercise is also a chance to show some of the weapons [Russia] hopes to sell to the Chinese, including the Tu-22 bomber, aerial tankers, and airborne radar planes.

    I also wrote that Russia intended the exercise as a dog-and-pony show for its soft underbelly exposed to Islamist terror. This lengthy critique of the Russian motivations for the exercises agrees with concern about the southern border but concludes that Russia is looking at it wrongly.

    Analysts said the maneuvers with China were also meant to send a warning to Washington, blamed by Moscow for backing peaceful pro-Western revolutions in former states once controlled by Moscow. The Kremlin denies the suggestion.

    “As far as Russia is concerned, the joint games were intended to demonstrate to the United States that Moscow has a powerful ally,” independent analyst Pavel Felgengauer said.

    Peaceful revolutions have already ousted governments in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. Moscow fears they could spread and further erode its influence in a region where it was once master.

    The hardline Uzbek government is under Western pressure after its troops killed over 500 people in the city of Andizhan in May. And Kazakhstan faces possible turbulence with presidential polls in December.

    Critics say the military exercises match the instincts of a backward-looking military that does not want to reform or change its traditional, and cheaper, reliance on a conscript army.

    “As long as you have a big potential foe, you have good reason to justify delaying reforms,” Golts said.

    Post-Soviet history shows that Russia’s main threat now comes from regional conflicts, such as the 10-year rebellion in Chechyna that remains unresolved.

    “Nothing answers less the need to meet modern security challenges than a massive draft army,” said Golts.

    Both are interesting examinations of an unprecedented and provacative exercise. As the first story points out, the U.S. military is “very interested” in the proceedings.

  • China, Russia: Would You Like to Play a Game?

    Despite their shared communist histories, long time antagonists China and Russia are about to launch their first-ever coordinated military exercise. And it certainly is a doozie, as are its ramifications.

    China, Russia join forces for war games

    When China and Russia launch their first joint military exercise tomorrow, their neighbours will be wondering why long-range strategic bombers and amphibious landing craft are being deployed in what is supposed to be an anti-terrorism drill.

    The two countries are calling it Peace Mission 2005, but it looks more like a rehearsal for full-scale war. The 10,000 Russian and Chinese soldiers will be practising a variety of standard combat techniques: long-range bombing runs, cruise-missile attacks, a naval assault on a coastal beachhead and a parachute landing by paratroopers.

    It’s the first time the two nations have conducted a joint military exercise, and their neighbours — including the United States, Japan and Taiwan — will be watching with some trepidation. There are growing concerns that Beijing and Moscow are forging a military alliance that could shift the global balance of power in an unpredictable new direction.

    According to the official Chinese news agency Xinhua, the joint exercise “will help strengthen the capability of the two armed forces in jointly striking international terrorism, extremism and separatism.” But with its strategic bombers and submarines, the exercise seems to go far beyond the needs of a mere anti-terrorism action.

    Terrorism is not the target of strategic bombers, not yet anyway. Nor is it the target of submarines and amphibious landings. The same goes for extremism. That leaves separatism, read Tiawan.

    Chinese war games leave US unfazed

    The Bush administration has described a planned joint Chinese-Russian military exercise in the Yellow Sea north of Taiwan as one that could advance the “mutual goal of regional stability” in East Asia, despite some reports that paint the exercise as being eerily similar to a rehearsal for a joint invasion of Taiwan.

    Trust me, these exercises are most assuredly not being viewed in terms of their value towards regional stability.

    The Chinese ambitions on Taiwan are obvious and its build-up is transparent. The values of this exercise toward their ambitions are clear: bombers hoping to threaten the American assets, subs meant to hold off the U.S. Navy, and amphibious and airborne troops training to seize Taiwan.

    What dogs do the Russians have in this hunt? Simply a paying customer. That, and a possibly effective dog-and-pony show.

    Russia, China open first joint military exercises

    The first-ever joint military exercises between the giant neighbours, who share a 4,300-km (2,700-mile) border, also present a commercial opportunity for Russia, China’s biggest supplier of arms and weapons technology, to flog its wares, analysts say.

    “The main target is the United States. Both sides want to improve their position for bargaining in terms of security, politics and economics,” said Jin Canrong, a professor of international relations at the People’s University of China.

    Both countries say “Peace Mission 2005,” which involves 10,000 troops and army, navy and air force exercises, is aimed at building ties between their militaries and analysts say it is not targeted at any third country.

    Okay, I’ll give the Russkies some credit. The efficiency of their weaponry has two targets: their customer in China and those radical Islamists spread all along the soft underbelly of Mother Russia.

    For just another game, this one is pretty damn serious.

  • U.S. Identifies Remains of Vietnam MIAs

    The long uncertainty has come to a close for a dozen families.

    When Army Sgt. Glenn E. Miller was listed as missing in action after a fierce gun battle in Vietnam in May 1968, his girlfriend figured he had been killed – even though there was never any proof.

    Thirty-seven years later, the remains of Miller, a Green Beret, and the 11 Marines who died alongside him have been identified and returned to the United States. It’s the largest group of MIAs identified from the Vietnam War, the Defense Department said Tuesday. There are still 1,815 other MIAs from the war.

    All the men’s families have met with representatives of the Marines and Army, said Larry Greer, a spokesman for the Pentagon’s missing personnel office. Five of the soldiers will be buried by their families; the others will be buried as a group in Arlington National Cemetery in October.

    […]

    The soldiers were killed May 9, 1968, during a 10-hour battle on a football field-sized area along the Laotian border in South Vietnam, Greer said. They were part of an artillery platoon airlifted in to support a unit that was at risk of an attack from nearby North Vietnamese forces.

    Go read for the names of all recovered and the reactions of those who have been waiting for so many years. I can certainly understand the families who have decided to privately bury their returned loved ones, but I also find it especially fitting that seven of the twelve will be interred with the comrades they have been sharing ground with since I was a newborn.

    Thank you, gentlemen, for your shared sacrifices. Rest well, at home at last.

  • Sub Rescue Team Tells of Drama

    Against the odds, against the water and most definitely against the clock, the Brits involved now talk about their decisive role in the this weekend’s rescue of a trapped and desperate Russian submarine.

    The Royal Navy-led team, which received a heroes’ welcome at Prestwick Airport, said they had repeatedly struck the mini-submarine with their remotely-operated vehicle (ROV) to reassure the Russians that a rescue was under way.

    The submariners, entombed for three days in 600ft of water at the bottom of the Pacific, responded by tapping on its hull, rather than speaking, to conserve oxygen.

    Go give it a gander. It’s short — too short, really, as I look forward to more.

    Let’s see what the Silent Service bloggers have, shall we? Chapomatic has links to three interview stories from the stranded. Meanwhile, Lubber’s Line at Ultraquiet No More has links to several stories covering the opening of what would seem to be a great big Russian blame-storming session.