After the second recent attack on Abu Ghraib, I blogged that the terrorists were trying to use the dramatic attacks to create another Tet.
The terrorists, despite vows to the contrary, had to watch an Iraqi citizenry give the finger to fear and vote for their own future. The attacks against U.S. troops have repeatedly failed and casualties are declining. It is time for the terrorists to turn back to the Viet Nam playbook – they need another Tet.
Now, one week and another glorious failure by the terrorists, this one an assault on a Marine encampment near the Syrian border, columnist Austin Bay reaches the same conclusion.
While bomb attacks on unarmed Iraqi civilians continue (particularly against Shiites), public opinion now matters in Iraq, and the thugs’ public slaughters have killed too many Iraqi innocents. January’s election dramatically lifted public morale and changed the media focus — suddenly, democracy looks possible, and an Arab Muslim democracy is Al Qaeda’s worst nightmare.
Hence the “Tet gamble.” Bombs haven’t cowed the Iraqi people — but perhaps the American people will lose heart and buckle if Al Qaeda concocts a military surprise.
U.S. forces, however, are “hard targets” — unlike civilians standing in line to vote, U.S. troops shoot back. Since 9-11, Al Qaeda has never won a military engagement at the platoon level (30 men) or higher. Coalition forward operating bases are heavily fortified.
But the Tet fantasy is so compelling.
Go give it a read. Hat tip to In the Bullpen‘s Chad Evans, who adds some solid insight to expand on Bay’s column.
Al Qaida is not just losing because they are outnumbered, have inferior technology to that of U.S. and Iraqi soldiers, rely on old weaponry funneled in through Iraq’s borders, the fighters have the marksmanship of a virgin hunter, are suffering from heat exhaustion because they have to hide their identity or even because they have had their leaders captured or killed at an alarming rate. Most importantly, Al Qaida and similar terrorist groups are losing in Iraq, Afghanistan and throughout the entire world because the world public rejects their ideology of hatred.